Box-Office Oracle: Sep. 24 – Sep. 26, 2010

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If these numbers hold it will be the biggest September weekend ever, which is concerning for a predictor. But I’ve gone over them a few times, and I think the new releases show much in the way of promise, so I suppose all that’s left is to break this puppy down and let the chips fall where they may!
#1 movie predicted correctly: 2 Weeks In A Row
Parents largely avoided Alpha and Omega which means they’ll be drawn in by this gorgeous looking 3-D effort at that 18 percent premium price.

Plus, the precedent is there for this sort of number. Legend of the Guardians has nearly 3,600 theaters; Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs cleared $1,000 more per theater from a similar spot in September last year. How to Train Your Dragon did 20 percent more than this number per theater, and that film proved timing is everything in the animation game.

Plus, it’s Zack Snyder, which means all of those people who praised Watchmen for no good reason have to come out and support him.

Okay, I’m just joshing on that last point. But $8700 per theater looks eminently doable to me.

Prediction: $31.159 million

This film is where I see some potential give. I liked the film, as did Brad, but it would have been far better off coming out in the summer. As the leaves change color people don’t want to watch a film about the economy collapsing, especially now that it’s been two years since the trouble really started. I think this one could be in a freefall marketing-wise.
Prediction: $19.114 million
A 40 percent drop. Not as solid as The Departed‘s holdover, but then again the film isn’t nearly as good.
Prediction: $14.405 million
I have no idea why anyone would subject themselves to this. But one out of every 150 Americans will most likely try it on for size.
Prediction: $14.085 million
This film really hurt The Other Guys last weekend.
Prediction: $10.107 million
The dips should return to normal levels for Resident Evil: Afterlife from here on out.
Prediction: $5.301 million
The biggest drop of the weekend. Fitting for an elevator movie, no?
Prediction: $5.263 million
The good news is it didn’t make enough to suffer from any frontloading this weekend. I suppose that’s the bad news too.
Prediction: $4.106 million
They have the full court press going on the PR side. But no one is in the film and the “wide” release is 650 theaters. Not enough!
Prediction: $2.048 million
10. Takers
Will Inception fall out of the top ten? It’s only going to take about 100k people either way to decide.
Prediction: $1.556 million

How say you? Bullish on the owls? Bearish on Oliver Stone? Give us your prognostications in the comment section, call Brad Saran Wrap because he’ll be here on Sunday to wrap you up.

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