‘Inception’ Bests ‘Schmucks’ in the Box-Office Wrap-Up

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Laremy is unable to handle the wrap-up this week so I am taking it on. Can’t say there are any major surprises here, although I didn’t count on Dinner for Schmucks doing quite so well, but my expectation it would drop after having the Friday lead came true. Let’s take a closer look at the numbers
#1 movie predicted correctly: 7 Weeks In A Row
Inception has made predicting the #1 slot pretty easy as of late with its third time taking the top spot at the weekend box-office.

Looking through commenter predictions from Laremy’s Oracle article “imaRinger” was just off with a $27.3 million prediction. Next week the stiffest competition comes from The Other Guys and Step Up 3D. One has Will Ferrell and Mark Wahlberg and the other is a franchise film, of which Step Up 2 the Streets opened with $18.9 million in 2008 without the help of 3D ticket prices. Will Inception still be able to hold off the competition or are we looking at a second or even third place finish?

Result: $27.5 million
Laremy’s rank Laremy picked it to finish #1 and my prediction of $29.96 million was $2.46m off for a percentage error of 8.95%.
You really needed to be on your game to beat “imaRinger” in picking the top three slots as he nailed each of them and was off be only $.3 million total on the top two. His $23.2 milion prediction was closest here, though “John Debono” wasn’t too far off with a $23.6 call. I assume many of you read my review and know I didn’t like this film, but I did see some comments saying Carell’s career was hurting… I’m not sure I see that just yet, especially with the success of Date Night, Despicable Me and a bit of a surprising opening for Schmucks.

Of course, Date Night and Despicable Me were able to hold on at the box-office while Schmucks is likely to disappear very quickly, but I just don’t quite understand how some people are writing him off… not just yet at least.

Result: $23.3 million
Laremy’s rank Laremy picked it to finish #5 with $18.84 million, which is $4.46m off for a 19.14% error.
3. Salt
A 46% drop here is almost a positive as things were looking like a 50+% drop after Friday’s numbers. Jolie’s latest has racked up over $70 million domestically now and will be reaching for a $100 million total once it’s done. The foreign take is likely to be big considering Jolie’s celebrity, but will it all be enough to generate a sequel?

As for reader predictions, “WillE” was closest on this one with a $19 million call.

Result: $19.2 million
Laremy’s rank Laremy picked it to finish #3 with $21.6 million, which is $2.4m off for a 12.5% error.
I enjoyed this film, but I’ve noticed a few readers didn’t find it as pleasurable. No problem, to each their own. However, it’s obviously doing well with moviegoers as it has now made over $190 million domestically giving it the eighth highest total of 2010 with Inception just above it with $193 million so far. Not too bad I’d say.

The closest user prediction on this one belonged to “Matt” with a $15.8 million call.

Result: $15.5 million
Laremy’s rank Laremy picked it to finish #4 with $18.91 million, which is $3.41m off for a 22% error.
Looks like audiences weren’t too interested in a sequel to a 9-year-old movie as this one won’t be going anywhere near the $93 million its predecessor made and that $85 million production budget doesn’t sweeten the deal.

Reader picks on this one ranged from $9.4 to $25.9, but “Ryan Hoffman” hit it on the head with $12.5.

Result: $12.5 million
Laremy’s rank Laremy picked it to finish #2 with $24.08 million, which is $11.58m off for a 92.64% error.
Zac Efron plays baseball with his dead brother and on Friday $5.6 million worth paid to see him do it, Saturday $3.8 and on Sunday only $2.6 million worth. Not a very good trend. I don’t see very long legs for Charlie. “WillE” had this one at $12 million. Nice work.
Result: $12.1 million
Laremy’s rank Laremy picked it to finish #6 with $13.57 million, which is $1.47m off for a 12.15% error.
The #1 movie of 2010 so far with over $389 million in the domestic bank. Of course, it’s #2 on the worldwide chart to Alice in Wonderland, but I’d say Disney has to be smiling pretty big with these two films filling their coffers. Nearly two billion dollars on just two films… is… pretty good.
Result: $5 million
Laremy’s rank Laremy picked it to finish #8 with $5.53 million, which is $0.53m off for a 10.6% error.
Adam Sandler’s appeal to general audiences amazes me. Grown Ups has now made over $150 million domestically. He’s obviously critic proof based on the 10% RottenTomatoes rating, and considering I had now desire to see this it leaves me in the dark. What’s even more baffling is the people turn out for his awful films and then completely overlook his better performances such as Punch Drunk Love and Reign Over Me. What gives?
Result: $4.5 million
Laremy’s rank Laremy picked it to finish #10 with $4.68 million, which is $0.18m off for a 4% error.
It’s too bad this film has done so poorly, because it’s not really all that bad. It’s quite fun in fact. Yet, it will be looked at as a failure alongside Jerry Bruckheimer’s other big Summer 2010 film, Prince of Persia. Saying they both tanked (Sorcerer more than Persia) is obviously so much easier than saying only one of them did. Then again, when a film has only made $51 million after three weeks at the box-office and carries a $150 production budget the story pretty much writes itself.
Result: $4.3 million
Laremy’s rank Laremy picked it to finish #7 with $6.5 million, which is $2.2m off for a 51.16% error.
A few of you were getting rather excited when Laremy didn’t include The Kids are All Right in his top ten predictions as it expanded to 847 theaters this weekend. Certainly, it’s weekend performance had been stellar its first two weekends, but you didn’t actually think it was going to be doing $12,000 per theater every weekend did you? I plugged the numbers more than once and the highest my predictions got for Kids were $3.5 million. Same for Eclipse in fact and both fell outside of my predicted top ten.

The biggest surprise this weekend for me is probably the fact Ramona and Beezus is already out of the top ten. Sure, it was made for a reported $15 million and has now grossed just over $16 million, but I don’t understand how something like Diary of a Wimpy Kid (another $15 million budget) does so great and this one can’t find similar footing.

Result: $3.9 million
Laremy’s rank Not Ranked

So there we have it. Ten slots. Ten films. Next week we have The Other Guys, Step Up 3D and Middle Men. Middle Men is opening rather small and will have to work hard for a slot, but all eyes will likely be on the top three slots to see just how long Inception can hold on as it will easily be over $200 million by the time it enters its fourth weekend.

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