Box-Office Oracle: Jul. 2 – Jul. 4, 2010

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It’s all about Eclipse this weekend, and it’s an interesting call either way. Other topics of note include The Last Airbender and Toy Story 3‘s potential final domestic number. Let’s break it down!
#1 movie predicted correctly: 2 Weeks In A Row
All kinds of competing logic going on here. First off, it is the largest opening in the history of cinema with 4,468 theaters. It’s going to be massively frontloaded, of course, and the nearly $70m opening Wednesday is certain to bleed some of the strength out of the three-day take. Plus there’s the overall fickleness of teen audiences. Is this a franchise still gaining momentum? Or will the groundwork be laid for something under New Moon‘s $700m worldwide cume?

For now, I’m going to defer on that last topic, and I’m taking a slightly aggressive middle road otherwise. I see another big number today, but New Moon managed $160m in its first five days, Eclipse will be closer to $200m. After that, all bets are off, because this (blood) sucker is going to sink with a quickness. The Twilight demo doesn’t wait, which is why Summit was smart to get as wide as possible, as fast as possible.

Prediction: $93.83 million

Needs another $90m to catch Finding Nemo‘s domestic crown, but Nemo did nearly double its business after the opening 13 days. It’s helped by the scathing reviews of The Last Airbender, and it will put another $35m towards the total this weekend. If it can fade Despicable Me for the family dollar after that it should be home free.
Prediction: $35.48 million
I’m giving it $10k per theater, but it’s a toughie to call. It did $3m at midnight today, but it should fade fast once word-of-mouth pounces.
Prediction: $31.69 million
It will drop 52 percent a la the average Sandler comedy.
Prediction: $19.44 million
A friend emailed me that I shouldn’t have put this was “fading fast” but with a production budget nearing $120m, with another $70m or so for marketing thrown in, $45m in worldwide cume isn’t exactly tearing it up.
Prediction: $10.89 million
Where are all the international dollars we were promised? Ah, I see, plenty of markets are getting in in the next six weeks, which should make it an exceptionally profitable little picture.
Prediction: $6.46 million
And now we’re down to the table scraps of Oracle …
Prediction: $2.04 million
These last three numbers are brutal. Don’t hold it against me.
Prediction: $0.786 million
Seriously, predicting movies with numbers this low seems altogether pointless.
Prediction: $0.737 million
Hey Hollywood, make movies that cost less money!
Prediction: $0.732 million

That’s all I’ve got. Numbers anywhere from $60m to $120m could come in for Eclipse, it’s a real stumper, and Airbender is another new release prediction nightmare. So throw your two cents in, before I retire!

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