Box-Office Wrap-Up: Jun. 25 – Jun. 27, 2010

ON
The box office was down from last weekend and last year, but Grown Ups performed far better than I predicted. Five million brave souls waded in to see Kevin James take on a tree, let’s hope they made it out alive.
#1 movie predicted correctly: 2 Weeks In A Row
I think chris_sc77 call of $57.5m was the most accurate, kudos given there. This was the fourth biggest drop for a Pixar title, a clear indication that frontloading is now a real concern… a measure of just how far that animation studio has progressed as frontloading happens when massive awareness meets a younger and impatient demographic.

Toy Story 3 needs $40m more domestically to crack the top three of all-time for Pixar, that’s a certainty, and the $70m needed to catch Up looks probable too. But $113m more is needed to catch Finding Nemo for the top domestic Pixar performance. That’s no sure thing.

Plus, you’ve got to wonder if future Pixar films will continue charging that 18 percent 3-D premium, a move that seems to be burning out the ticket buyers.

Result: $59 million
My rank: I picked it to finish #1 and my prediction of $71.7 million was $12.7m off for a percentage error of 21.53%.
Goavs’ call at $37.8m was the closest, we were definitely all over the board on this title. I’ve seen a $70m production budget thrown around here, meaning they should at least break even. Looks like a similar financial result as I Now Pronounce You Chuck and Larry, though it opened slightly higher.
Result: $41 million
My rank: I picked it to finish #3 with $24 million, which is $17m off for a 41.46% error.
Jcar was half a million off, a solid call. The smart money indicates Diaz and Cruise signed on for cheap, but they broke the bank on marketing over the past two weeks. $20m isn’t enough. In some ways I suppose they are paying for those miserable SportsCenter ads.
Result: $20.5 million
My rank: I picked it to finish #2 with $26.33 million, which is $5.83m off for a 28.44% error.
It looks to me like $50m in profit is almost a given here. That’s an awful lot of leverage for young Mr. Smith’s sequel contract.
Result: $15.4 million
My rank: I picked it to finish #4 with $17.54 million, which is $2.14m off for a 13.9% error.
It’s a shame about this result, I would have liked to see a big follow-up.
Result: $6 million
My rank: I picked it to finish #5 with $8.1 million, which is $2.1m off for a 35% error.
It came out in the UK this weekend, but I haven’t seen the numbers reported yet. Gotta figure they’ll support Brand though, no?
Result: $3 million
My rank: I picked it to finish #6 with $3.67 million, which is $0.67m off for a 22.33% error.
It will finish below the original Shrek domestically. Not ideal.
Result: $2.87 million
My rank: I picked it to finish #10 with $2.41 million, which is $0.46m off for a 16.03% error.
The video game had a better storyline, and for far cheaper.
Result: $2.8 million
My rank: I picked it to finish #8 with $2.57 million, which is $0.23m off for a 8.21% error.
When it comes out that a few dozen people in Hollywood were using film budgets to launder money I think I’m going to apply for a raise.
Result: $2 million
My rank: I picked it to finish #7 with $3.05 million, which is $1.05m off for a 52.5% error.
The budget was near $50m, and the film won’t hit $15m. You have to admire the scope of such a disaster.
Result: $1.6 million
My rank: I picked it to finish #9 with $2.53 million, which is $0.93m off for a 58.13% error.

How say you? Want to weigh in on a domestic or worldwide total for Toy Story 3? Need to throw out early Eclispe or Airbender calls? Right now The Last Airbender holds the greatest mystery for me, but I’ve got a few days of research to get it straight. Comment away!

Check out our new Box-Office charts here and
subscribe to our updated Box-Office RSS feed here