Box-Office Wrap-Up: Jun. 18 – Jun. 20, 2010

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It looks as though Toy Story 3 is going to break the June opening weekend record, but we might have to wait for the actuals to officially call it. Pixar’s has a new standard too, far surpassing The Incredibles $70m take. But Shrek the Third and The Dark Knight can rest easy. They still hold their respective titles. Let’s break it down!
#1 movie predicted correctly: 1 Week In A Row
Oscar Smarty was within .3m and Dan Tralder and John Debono were both extremely close as well.

I ended up high, even though many of y’all indicated my “lack of crossover” theory was off. I guess I’ll throw it back to the group – if Toy Story 3 had the massive crossover appeal everyone indicated it should, why couldn’t it crush Shrek the Third? Especially given the 18 percent advantage that 3-D provides? Could it be that Toy Story 3 didn’t have enough child appeal? Or the economy in general? Perhaps that nearly two hour (if you include the short) running time? Maybe it’s just hard to bank in June?

Now, to the bright side, this was a great result for Pixar. As a few have pointed out, this should be a 4x or 5x multiplier off opening weekend, and the international take will be hefty too. Alice in Wonderland opened at $116m and made a billion in worldwide cume. Could Toy Story 3 make the same run in an off summer?

Result: $109 million
My rank: I picked it to finish #1 and my prediction of $128.9 million was $19.9m off for a percentage error of 18.26%.
I didn’t see this falling 47 percent. Still, they’ve already made their money back so the rest is just gravy.
Result: $29 million
My rank: I picked it to finish #2 with $33.4 million, which is $4.4m off for a 15.17% error.
I’ve got to think this fell less than Karate Kid because it a) started lower and b) didn’t have massive demographic competition.
Result: $13.7 million
My rank: I picked it to finish #4 with $14.41 million, which is $0.71m off for a 5.18% error.
If the numbers hold, this was the third busiest weekend of the year. Looks like it’s going to come down to Eclipse to hunt down the big records, but that Wednesday opening will definitely sap its weekend power.
Result: $6.1 million
My rank: I picked it to finish #6 with $5.9 million, which is $0.2m off for a 3.28% error.
A 65 percent drop. Being the third choice for families is not the place you want to be.
Result: $5.5 million
My rank: I picked it to finish #5 with $7.7 million, which is $2.2m off for a 40% error.
I can’t imagine a sequel here, but then again I’d have bet $100 against Ghost Rider getting a second shot.
Result: $5.2 million
My rank: I picked it to finish #7 with $4.03 million, which is $1.17m off for a 22.5% error.
This should have cost $40m less to make. Where’s the money, Lionsgate?
Result: $5.1 million
My rank: I picked it to finish #8 with $2.63 million, which is $2.47m off for a 48.43% error.
Holy to the moly, Jonah Hex was brutalized. DeadlineHollywood indicated Warner Bros. spent at least $60m on this nastiness, which means they just set a whole mess of cash on fire.
Result: $5 million
My rank: I picked it to finish #3 with $18.36 million, which is $13.36m off for a 267.2% error.
The first one pulled more domestically. This one was much more balanced worldwide.
Result: $2.67 million
My rank: I picked it to finish #10 with $1.94 million, which is $0.73m off for a 27.34% error.
$35m on a budget of $50m… and the crowd goes wild!
Result: $2.65 million
My rank: I picked it to finish #9 with $2.3 million, which is $0.35m off for a 13.21% error.

How say you? Pleased with Pixar’s first triple-digit opening? Wishing it would have knocked off Shrek the Third? Willing to call Cars 2 finishing under $80m right about now? Comment away, I look forward to your take.

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