Box-Office Oracle: Jun. 11 – Jun. 13, 2010

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This is a difficult weekend to call. Two beloved ’80s franchises return, one distinctly for the children, one for the fellas that were children back in the day. Who will win? Will the box office rebound? What’s up with this summer? All that and more answered … now!
#1 movie predicted correctly: 1 Week In A Row
You tell me. I’m seeing a PG-13 actioner with a built in fanbase. It reminds me of Mission Impossible which opened at $45m all the way back in 1996. Certainly this can put up a $40m, right?

The film itself is solid too. Not amazing, not Bourne-style gritty, but definitely a fun time at the movies. Unfortunately, audiences have been feeling burned by rehashing and remaking; they’ve been voting with their pocketbooks. The top twelve for the second weekend of June in 2009 made $131m, the worst effort of the month. If that number happens this weekend it means the new releases will get crushed.

Here’s hoping they don’t. I’m betting bullish on two decent films. Here goes nothing.

Prediction: $40.64 million

For families, this movie works. No, I didn’t love it, but I don’t love 12-year-old protagonists, just in general. That said, Jaden Smith is very good here, I can definitely see a long career for the youngling. As far as box office goes Karate Kid cleared $9k per theater back when going wide meant 1,300 theaters. This one will do slightly better, parents are starved, and kids are getting out of school.
Prediction: $37.55 million
You had a nice run, Shrek. You’ll cross $200m in domestic box office this weekend. Then it’s about time for the band to play you off.
Prediction: $13 million
It will have a respectable holdover. But you’ve got to be a little concerned about that $40m budget if you’re Universal.
Prediction: $10.55 million
What do you call $75m set on fire? Killers.
Prediction: $7.6 million
At least it only cost $50m! Ideally, most of that was embezzled.
Prediction: $6.1 million
It’s nearing triple its domestic take internationally, but the issue is still domestic combined with budget. It just didn’t bounce enough in North America do have an impact. Bonus: no more Prince of Persia films.
Prediction: $5.98 million
Another film not in a great position, unless they really rocked the theaters on the opening weekend splits. Currently $183m on a $100m production budget isn’t getting it done, though of course DVD sales will be healthy.
Prediction: $4.73 million
I have no opinion here. Someone bail me out in the comments. Worth a watch?
Prediction: $4.06 million
As we close the book on Iron Man 2 we can call it a modest financial winner. The near $600m in worldwide cume paired with strong DVD and Blu-ray sales will put this well into the black. They won’t hit hundreds of millions of dollars in revenue, but it’s not a loss either. At this point, Paramount will take it.
Prediction: $3.36 million

How say you? Tempted to take Karate Kid at the top? Want to tell me my numbers are way too high or low? Lay it on me, I’ll be here all weekend.

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