Box-Office Wrap-Up: Apr. 23 – Apr. 25, 2010

ON
Boom! Despite all my second and third guessing I still managed to somehow nail the top slot, with How to Train Your Dragon grabbing its second crown in its fifth weekend.
#1 movie predicted correctly: 8 Weeks In A Row
The lowest box office of the year, we haven’t seen a weekend this small since December. The Check Spot and Nick were close enough in their predictions to share some of this glory, kudos to them.

How to Train Your Dragon is only $19m short of entering the top five of all-time for 3-D, passing up Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs. It’s been a beautiful run for the little dragon film that could, and they’ve got at least one more weekend to bank on the lack of competition… unless you count Furry Vengeance. Based on the trailers, you really shouldn’t.

Result: $15.025 million
My rank: I picked it to finish #1 and my prediction of $15.05 million was $0.025m off for a percentage error of 0.17%.
I really thought the PG-13 of The Losers would lift it. Chris_sc77 and Check Spot both predicted it second, but Chris_sc77 was closer on the dollars. The production budget of $35m doesn’t make for happy financial prospects here.
Result: $12.2 million
My rank: I picked it to finish #3 with $13.12 million, which is $0.92m off for a 7.54% error.
I’ll take the percentage of error. It competed well against a new release in the same demo, only a few hundred thousand people short of the silver medal.
Result: $10.6 million
My rank: I picked it to finish #4 with $11.41 million, which is $0.81m off for a 7.64% error.
People didn’t take to this film. The budget was only $25m, but they are clearly in trouble. Still, for $25m, this film did look decent on the screen.
Result: $9.6 million
My rank: I picked it to finish #2 with $13.13 million, which is $3.53m off for a 36.77% error.
It did fall the most of any film, as predicted, but it didn’t fall quite as much as I thought. Still, a film I hope people give a chance. It’s an interesting effort.
Result: $9.5 million
My rank: I picked it to finish #5 with $8.92 million, which is $0.58m off for a 6.11% error.
It’s actually in better shape than How to Train Your Dragon based on the smaller $125m production budget. That said, we have no idea what the marketing outlays for each film looked like.
Result: $9 million
My rank: I picked it to finish #6 with $8.38 million, which is $0.62m off for a 6.89% error.
With the numbers this low the weekend ended up relatively easy to predict on the holdovers. If I can just call next week correctly I’ll get a freebie with Iron Man 2 winning the weekend after. Early prediction on Iron Man 2? $125m opening.
Result: $8 million
My rank: I picked it to finish #7 with $7.87 million, which is $0.13m off for a 1.63% error.
Just needed more theaters, more marketing, or a sea change in how people consume documentaries. Ha, “sea change.” See what I did there?
Result: $6 million
My rank: I picked it to finish #8 with $5.9 million, which is $0.1m off for a 1.67% error.
Hello Mr. Bingo, my name is the Box Office Oracle. Thanks for the love.
Result: $3.7 million
My rank: I picked it to finish #9 with $3.61 million, which is $0.09m off for a 2.43% error.
Curses! Perhaps the actuals will prove me correct on Hot Tub Time Machine grabbing the tenth slot? Wait, never mind. I don’t want to waste one of my come from behind wins on something so small. I have to save those to keep the streak intact.
Result: $2.2 million
My rank: Not Ranked

How say you? Any surprises? Did you see any of the new releases? Am I crazy for enjoying Kick-Ass? Comment away, the wrap-up column needs you!

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