Box-Office Oracle: Apr. 23 – Apr. 25, 2010

This weekend is absolutely brutal to predict. Three films have a legitimate shot at winning it, and the margin for error is slim because the totals will be low. Half a percent of the country is going to decide this thing, and I can’t quite get clarity on which way to lean. But enough hand-wringing, let’s predict and let the chips fall where they may.
#1 movie predicted correctly: 7 Weeks In A Row
Allright, Dragon, it’s up to you now. The math suggests The Back-Up Plan will win, but intuition suggests the trailers, reviews, and awareness around that film are awful.

How to Train Your Dragon doesn’t have any of those problems. It still has the most theaters, it’s still in 3-D, and it’s still working off of solid reviews and glowing weekend over weekend splits. So let’s put it on top in its fifth weekend, $338m dollars later.

Because otherwise we’re just predicting that there are $16m worth of Back-Up Plan rubes in this country. And as Kick-Ass pointed out — that’s not the place you want to live in. So, yeah, this is a prediction of hope over street smarts.

Prediction: $15.05 million

The PG-13 rating and explosions will help it. Five films having more theaters will hurt it. Add the hurt and help all together and you get a number around $13m. However, buyer beware, this could easily crack $18m and win the weekend. If it matches Kick-Ass‘s per theater average from last weekend it will almost certainly win. If it performs like Smoking Aces it wins it. I’m instantly regretting my decision not to place this first.
Prediction: $13.13 million
All of the comparables suggest a $16m+ opening. There’s just this little spidey sense that says people are souring on J-Lo.
Prediction: $13.12 million
Finally, a film that can’t win the weekend! What a relief. I’m dipping in 30 percent and moving on to…
Prediction: $11.41 million
It should drop the most of any holdover due to the demographic. Most of the people who want to see this have already done so.
Prediction: $8.92 million
The international dollars have really boosted Clash of the Titans. $190m internationally for a total of $325m worldwide indicates that with a solid DVD push they’ll find profit here.
Prediction: $8.38 million
The second biggest drop of the weekend, another highly frontloaded vehicle.
Prediction: $7.87 million
The number for last year’s Earth about right. With 3000 theaters this one would have been a contender.
Prediction: $5.9 million
A number around a 40 percent drop seems to be the trendline here. No reason to think that will change.
Prediction: $3.61 million
Hot Tub Time Machine remains one of the spring disasters, its bloated production budget dooming it to red ink.
Prediction: $1.89 million

How say you? Anyone want to call for a three way tie? Do you like The Back-Up Plan or The Losers to pull this thing out? It’s time to shine, commenters. Comment away!

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