Box-Office Wrap-Up: Apr. 16 – Apr. 18, 2010

ON
Here we go again! Another photo finish for the weekend, only this time the margin is only $.3m. I’ll admit my streak went down once it’s official, but for now let’s break this very light weekend down.
#1 movie predicted correctly: 0 Weeks In A Row
The number one dragon movie of all time, by a ton. It would be quite a story if these numbers held, How to Train Your Dragon would be the first movie in quite some time to win its first and fourth weekends… without winning the weekends in-between.

$320m on a production budget of $165m isn’t ideal, but you’ve got to figure they have a few more strong weekends in them. The next true “family friendly” movie is either Oceans (with only 1200 screens) or Shrek Forever After, depending on your tastes.

Still, I wouldn’t bet the farm on these numbers just yet. I do think How to Train Your Dragon will hit $20m, heck I predicted $18.86, I just think Kick-Ass will do slightly better. Which brings us to …

Result: $20 million
My rank: I picked it to finish #3 and my prediction of $18.86 million was $1.14m off for a percentage error of 5.7%.
The numbers are calling for a $7.65m Friday, a $7.25m Saturday, and a $4.85m Sunday. Which means that Kick-Ass probably needs a $5.2m Sunday to take the weekend. The real point of concern is this one not jumping up on Saturday. I think they are basing this trend off Zombieland, which put up $9.4m and $9.3m on Fri/Sat before plummeting to $5.9m on Sunday. If Kick-Ass does the same thing it’s not going to make it, though the overall financial picture is decent because the budget was low.
Result: $19.7 million
My rank: I picked it to finish #1 with $26.67 million, which is $6.97m off for a 35.38% variance.
A nice second weekend result, but they still need about $80m more from somewhere to feel good here.
Result: $17.3 million
My rank: I picked it to finish #4 with $14.65 million, which is $2.65m off for a 15.32% variance.
M1 had a genius $17.1m call here. I don’t know what dinged it financially, other than that R-rating. It definitely wasn’t hilarious, but that’s never stopped anyone at the box office so far.
Result: $17 million
My rank: I picked it to finish #2 with $23.36 million, which is $6.36m off for a 37.41% variance.
Back on track! $250m worldwide. Anyone want to go for $300m?
Result: $15.7 million
My rank: I picked it to finish #5 with $13.14 million, which is $2.56m off for a 16.31% variance.
The second biggest drop, though it was only 41 percent. What a strange weekend.
Result: $5.8 million
My rank: I picked it to finish #6 with $6.1 million, which is $0.3m off for a 5.17% variance.
That’s a nice looking prediction. I believe I will call BINGO here.
Result: $4.1 million
My rank: I picked it to finish #7 with $4.14 million, which is $0.04m off for a 0.98% variance.
I wonder if they’ll put “the film that ended MGM” on the DVD cover?
Result: $3.54 million
My rank: I picked it to finish #8 with $3.48 million, which is $0.06m off for a 1.69% variance.
$827m! It’s very close to cracking the top 20 of all-time for both domestic and international. Not adjusted for inflation, of course.
Result: $3.5 million
My rank: I picked it to finish #9 with $3.08 million, which is $0.42m off for a 12% variance.
Still looking like a slight financial loser. A cautionary tale for big budget comedy. Laughs don’t need stunts!
Result: $3.2 million
My rank: Not Ranked

That’s all I got. Anyone think Kick-Ass actually pulls this thing off? Care to opine as to why it failed? Was it not marketed correctly? And have you seen How to Train Your Dragon yet? Hard to root against that one. Comment away!

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