Box-Office Oracle: Mar. 26 – Mar. 28, 2010

We’re headed back in time this weekend, but not because of Hot Tub Time Machine. Nope, it’s because on March 27, 2009 a little 3-D film called Monsters vs. Aliens was released by Paramount (Dreamworks). Now why would I bring that up?
#1 movie predicted correctly: 3 Weeks In A Row
Dat’s a BINGO! Monsters vs. Aliens opened at $59.3m last March. So why will How to Train Your Dragon fare just slightly worse? In no particular order:

1) A few less theaters.

2) Less 3-D theaters available because of Alice in Wonderland and Clash of the Titans contracts.

3) A tougher concept to market?

I’m not entirely sure on that last one, as you can tell by my question mark. But it’s my working theory as of this moment.

Regardless, I look for Dragon to do dynamite box-office, well deserved.

Prediction: $54.74 million

It’s not quite to the level of The Hangover, but it’s good enough for a Friday night. I’ve placed it at $9k per theater, lofty, I know. Something about this weekend feels bullish to me.
Prediction: $24.78 million
It’s bleeding 350 theaters or so, many of the lucrative 3-D variety. Plus it’s facing genre heat from How to Train Your Dragon. All of that adds up to a 52 percent dip.
Prediction: $16.09 million
Oddly enough, it’s gaining five theaters in this maelstrom, but it faces the same demo dilemma as Alice in Wonderland. Only with way less marketing might.
Prediction: $12.19 million
Ideally, this will fall the most on the board. Don’t fail me on this one, let’s all work together to smite bad movies.
Prediction: $9.93 million
Yep, you could make a pretty strong case that the top five are locked in. Luckily League was only sporting a $20m production budget.
Prediction: $3.77 million
It’s cracked $200m in worldwide cume. Fun with math: it opened higher than The Departed but trailed off more quickly… probably thanks to the whole “Academy Award Contender” aspect.
Prediction: $3.17 million
A commenter claimed this was just a bad movie, thus the box-office failure. Not a bad theory, that. I’ll look into it.
Prediction: $2.75 million
Bright side? Green Zone cleared a healthy $45k in Iceland.
Prediction: $2.52 million
10. Avatar
Avatar is losing 300 more theaters this weekend, dropping it down to 900, but it will make one more proud stand. Fifteen weekends in a row in the top ten, pour out some sort of recreational beverage on its behalf.
Prediction: $2.27 million

How say you? Am I too high/low on How to Train Your Dragon? Am I giving a fair shake to Hot Tub Time Machine? The floor is yours, bring it on.

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