Box-Office Oracle: Mar. 19 – Mar. 21, 2010

I think I’m going with “Dat’s a BINGO!” when I get very close on a prediction. Annoying? Yes, indeed. My apologies in advance. As for this weekend? It’s an easy call. The trend for Alice in Wonderland is clear, and there are no real challengers. Let’s break it down!
#1 movie predicted correctly: 2 Weeks In A Row
You’re out there thinking “What the what?” — but the number is right. Only a 28 percent drop, even against demo competition. Why? Because word of mouth has been decent and the film is more marketable / recognizable than the other book adaptation, Diary of a Wimpy Kid.

It’s looking like a “go” for profit on this product, it’s going to clear $500m without working too hard. How about other revenue streams? Anyone seen Alice happy meals or Johnny Depp action figures? Learn us up in the comments section.

Prediction: $45.15 million

I know the general public is hungry for a good romantic comedy. And I haven’t seen this one, so it could actually be good. But the concept itself is the height of unfunny, it’s looking very tired. Which is why I can only reward it $6500 per theater, and not a penny more.

**Update** I’ve now seen it. And it’s most terrible.
Prediction: $19.83 million
This feels like an unknown quantity to me. Yeah, it’s coming off a successful book, but where are the trailers? And why is the poster so spartan?
Prediction: $16.25 million
Repo Men is spotting the other new releases around 500 theaters, plus it looks very R-rated. I can’t see the grandparents headed out to this on a Sunday afternoon.
Prediction: $12.96 million
I want to punch the Internet in the face for spoiling this film. Only the ‘net won’t sit still enough for me to do so.
Prediction: $6.89 million
No less a publication than the Los Angeles Times has called this an “epic flop.” Well then, tell us how you really feel, don’t hold back.
Prediction: $6.87 million
I realize no one was in it. But you can trust me when I say it’s funny. Seriously. I wouldn’t steer you wrong after all these years together.
Prediction: $5.47 million
The production budget was only listed at $80m for this project. That seems light for a DiCaprio / Scorsese film, no?
Prediction: $5.33 million
It’s getting 500 theaters or so. That should be enough to crack a weak top ten.
Prediction: $3.75 million
10. Avatar
I almost dropped it out of the top ten. But Our Family Wedding feels a little too front-loaded to leave in the mix.
Prediction: $3.66 million

How say you? Don’t hold back, if my Alice number is loopy or you see big things for one of the new releases let us all hear about it.

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