#1 movie predicted correctly: 1 Week In A Row
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| I was originally pretty bearish on this title, I had it finishing second in my initial numbers. But the money has to go somewhere, right? With only one new release, solid reviews, and little competition in the demo, I revised my calculations.
I just pray this isn’t a Number 23 situation. Big name actor, a director you’ve heard of, complete bomb. However, I’m thinking the difference between Marty Scorsese and Joel Schumacher has to be a profound one. The good news? Even if these numbers hold the weekend will still be down over $50m, so I don’t even need that many people to jump on board. And really, you could logically throw more money behind all these titles. Prediction: $35.5 million |
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Valentine’s Day films usually open the week before Valentine’s Day, so we don’t have a great trendline. Definitely, Maybe did open on V-day, but no one chose to see that one, so it’s not a great indicator. I’m going for a number around 50 First Dates, though that was a slightly better film.
Prediction: $26.6 million
3. Avatar
At this point you predict a bleed somewhere in the 20 percent range and move on, though it’s only fallen that far twice in two weekends. It will hit $2.4b in worldwide cume this weekend, if it hasn’t already.
Prediction: $17.7 million
This title would seem to be front-loaded (children don’t wait) but it has no competition in the demo. Plus, I think the youngsters that haven’t read the books will attend this weekend, upon the advice of their friends.
Prediction: $17.4 million
5. The Wolfman
The numbers look bleak. And Brad mentioned to me that Del Toro did this project for very little cash, as a labor of love. So where did they spend the $150m? Craft services?
Prediction: $13.8 million
6. Dear John
None of us can logically say why it’s gaining theaters this weekend. But it is.
Prediction: $9.1 million
Needs another $70m somewhere to feel great about a profit.
Prediction: $4.7 million
9. Crazy Heart
The impressive part here is the music. The songs sound exactly like country ditties that would have been hits back in the day. Very well done.
Prediction: $3.25 million
10. Edge of Darkness
Anyone hear that rumor about De Niro being fired from this set? He’s probably thankful at this point, eh?
Prediction: $2.9 million
How say you? No number from $23m to $40m would surprise me on Shutter Island. Valentine’s Day should logically plummet, but only based on sentiment, not historical trends. I await your prognostications!
