Box-Office Oracle: Feb. 19 – Feb. 21, 2010

#1 movie predicted correctly: 1 Week In A Row
I was originally pretty bearish on this title, I had it finishing second in my initial numbers. But the money has to go somewhere, right? With only one new release, solid reviews, and little competition in the demo, I revised my calculations.

I just pray this isn’t a Number 23 situation. Big name actor, a director you’ve heard of, complete bomb. However, I’m thinking the difference between Marty Scorsese and Joel Schumacher has to be a profound one.

The good news? Even if these numbers hold the weekend will still be down over $50m, so I don’t even need that many people to jump on board. And really, you could logically throw more money behind all these titles.

Prediction: $35.5 million

Valentine’s Day films usually open the week before Valentine’s Day, so we don’t have a great trendline. Definitely, Maybe did open on V-day, but no one chose to see that one, so it’s not a great indicator. I’m going for a number around 50 First Dates, though that was a slightly better film.
Prediction: $26.6 million
At this point you predict a bleed somewhere in the 20 percent range and move on, though it’s only fallen that far twice in two weekends. It will hit $2.4b in worldwide cume this weekend, if it hasn’t already.
Prediction: $17.7 million
This title would seem to be front-loaded (children don’t wait) but it has no competition in the demo. Plus, I think the youngsters that haven’t read the books will attend this weekend, upon the advice of their friends.
Prediction: $17.4 million
The numbers look bleak. And Brad mentioned to me that Del Toro did this project for very little cash, as a labor of love. So where did they spend the $150m? Craft services?
Prediction: $13.8 million
None of us can logically say why it’s gaining theaters this weekend. But it is.
Prediction: $9.1 million
Needs another $70m somewhere to feel great about a profit.
Prediction: $4.7 million
See above, but times two. Yikes.
Prediction: $3.3 million
The impressive part here is the music. The songs sound exactly like country ditties that would have been hits back in the day. Very well done.
Prediction: $3.25 million
Anyone hear that rumor about De Niro being fired from this set? He’s probably thankful at this point, eh?
Prediction: $2.9 million

How say you? No number from $23m to $40m would surprise me on Shutter Island. Valentine’s Day should logically plummet, but only based on sentiment, not historical trends. I await your prognostications!

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