Box-Office Wrap-Up: Oct. 30 – Nov. 1, 2009

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Well folks, Laremy decided to miss the number one movie by nearly $31 million and just happens to be “busy” this morning so I am here to post the box-office wrap-up. Let’s get into it…
#1 movie predicted correctly: 1 Week In A Row
So Laremy let the press releases and marketing sway his opinion — not too hard to understand — that can happen when you’re hearing shows are sold out across the country.

Unfortunately, shows obviously weren’t sold out as the exploitation of Michael Jackson was only able to muster an estimated $21.3 million for the three-day, which means JM was the closest prediction at $25.5 while Bustray, Harmonica and Raichu were also close, all three predicting the low-to-mid-$26m range.

Perhaps the least surprising part of the story is Sony has already gone back on their word and has decided to extend the two-week limited engagement through Thanksgiving weekend. Why do we ever believe what the studios say?

As for that potential $250 million worldwide box-office for the five-day, try $101 million as Sony is pitching the film as “the highest-grossing concert film of all-time.” I hope they are proud of themselves. Check out Nikki Finke for a complete rundown of the film’s road to a five-day domestic return of $32.5 million.

Result: 21.3 million (Laremy’s rank: #1, $30.9m off)
Back on track dollar-wise, Laremy was a mere $1.7 million off with the Halloween horror favorite Paranormal Activity, a film I feel I have covered far too much already and will leave it at that.
Result: 16.5 million (Laremy’s rank: #2, $1.7m off)
And his predictions keep getting better and I’m glad to see Law Abiding Citizen is still doing decent box-office for a film that is certainly a bit over-the-top, but also a lot of fun.
Result: 7.3 million (Laremy’s rank: #3, $0.4m off)
Couples Retreat is also holding on and Laremy had it predicted to do so. I am one of the people that didn’t come down as hard on this one as most critics did. Sure, it’s a sloppy presentation, but there is some fun to be had before the awful ending.
Result: 6.0 million (Laremy’s rank: #4, $0.9m off)
Well, Laremy had the dollars right, but he was off on the positioning by one. However, while the latest incarnation of the Saw franchise isn’t doing the numbers it typically does it will certainly keep the franchise going and will most likely return to form next year when it doesn’t have an out-of-the-blue juggernaut like Paranormal Activity to contend with.
Result: 5.5 million (Laremy’s rank: #6, $0.1m off)
I would love to be a fly on the wall at the WB offices when this movie comes up. I am sure they aren’t happy with the domestic returns, but when you hire an imaginative director such as Spike Jonze to turn something like “Where the Wild Things Are” into a feature film you shouldn’t be surprised when he delivers a polarizing art house film and not a mainstream blockbuster. I am going to be interested to see what kind of plans they have in store for the DVD/Blu-ray though. There are certainly some interesting ways they could go to package some special editions.
Result: 5.0 million (Laremy’s rank: #5, $1.6m off)
Outside of that wildly off target #1 pick, Laremy did solid work on the numbers this week. I will say, however, I am shocked anyone convinced themselves they needed to see this film. The trailer was enough for me to plan on avoiding this one for life.
Result: 3.4 million (Laremy’s rank: #8, $0.1m off)
If it ain’t Twilight it appears Summit can’t market it. Then again, what kind of marketing does Summit need to do for Twilight?
Result: 3.03 million (Laremy’s rank: #9, $0.27m off)
By adding 250 theaters Mira Nair’s critically panned Amelia Earhart biopic made its way into the top ten. However, that’s likely to be the last time we talk about this misfire.
Result: 3.00 million (Laremy’s rank: #10, $0.2m off)
Ugh, I did not like this film one bit and with its reported $40 million budget and the $10.5 million it’s made so far it looks like the sequel it was hoping for will be shown only in your mind movies along with The Golden Compass II and Eragon II.
Result: 2.8 million (Laremy’s rank: Not Ranked)

So weigh in with your thoughts. Did you go see the MJ movie? Are you surprised it didn’t reach the lofty goals Laremy was duped into thinking it would hit or is the $21.3 million three-day return what you expected?