Box-Office Oracle: Sep. 25 – Sep. 27, 2009

#1 movie predicted correctly: 2 Weeks in a Row
1. Fame
I don’t think it’s a good movie, but I do think it has the most broad based appeal. Step Up 2 The Streets opened at $7600 per theater. I only need this one to do $6000 to pull out the victory. That’s half full theaters. Surely it can pull that off?
Estimate: $18.6 million
It’s PG-13, that helps. And it’s got Bruce Willis, that helps too. But where has the marketing been? I’ve seen a few commercials, but that’s it. I just don’t feel like the awareness is out there, at least not enough for it to take the crown over a teen movie.
Estimate: $17.7 million
I can’t ding it more than 41.5 percent this weekend. No competition, not until next weekend when Toy Story and Toy Story 2 get the old 3-D re-release. Those are going to be big fun to predict.
Estimate: $17.6 million
Check out that drop-off. Three films within a million dollars of each other at the top… and then an eleven million dollar dip. Pandorum is rated R. Fool me once with Sorority Row. Fool me twice with Jennifer’s Body.Guess what, Pandorum? I’m not getting fooled again!
Estimate: $6.3 million
I’ve only got two films falling more than 50 percent this weekend. The reason? They all started out with low dollar amounts to begin with. You can’t bleed a stone.
Estimate: $5.8 million
The other interesting roll-out on the board is I Hope They Serve Beer in Hell. Evidently they are going with 115 theaters this weekend, 300 next weekend, and then finally 2000 theaters in three weeks. I only bring this up now because Tucker Max is sort of going the Tyler Perry method. Make your own film, secure your own distribution, hope the fans line up. Will it work? I wouldn’t feel good placing a bet either way.
Estimate: $5.1 million
You’ve got to wonder about the calls Jennifer Aniston’s agent is getting these days. “Is she available to judge the Eukanuba Dog Show? Heck yeah, absolutely! She’ll be on the next plane!”
Estimate: $3.8 million
You know Michael Bay is secretly thrilled. But the problem with being considered a “sex symbol” is that it comes with a shelf life. It’s a highly transitory profession. Megan’s time is now up.
Estimate: $3.4 million
9. 9
Just to circle back, I read that the budget (pre-marketing) for Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs was $100m. Can that be right? And if the film has only cleared $34m aren’t they going to need a big worldwide push?

9 has a much more reasonable budget of $30m. So the $25m they’ve grossed at least allows them to ponder a scenario where they make a profit.

Estimate: $3.1 million
Basterds could reach up and grab this spot, which of course I’m cheering for. When I think of the three million people who saw All About Steve I shudder for humanity. There are things you can’t unsee.
Estimate: $2.0 million

I consider it a three-race at the top, so if you have a solid argument for Meatballs or Surrogates (like it’s been six weeks since an actioner won) lemme have it. Any and all theories considered.

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