Box-Office Oracle: Aug. 21 – Aug. 23, 2009

#1 movie predicted correctly: 3 Weeks in a Row
It’s gonna win, if only because nothing of note was released to contend with it.

And it should win, it deserves it. Sure, it’s too long, and too strange, and Tarantino is too affected… and I still love his stuff. If you don’t, cool, but I do. I’m just one guy over here, trying to get along.

$7500 per theater, 3,165 theaters, and it wins a very slow weekend at the box office.

Estimate: $23.7 million
It’s going to fall. I’m thinking 53 percent or so, because younger audiences are frontload central. It could surprise me and jump up into the $20s, heck it could contend for a repeat, but I’m putting it just shy of $18m because I think people have already moved on.
Estimate: $17.7 million
Has anyone seen any marketing on this? It’s a weird tweener title because some kids are already back in school. I can’t see it doing well.
Estimate: $13.0 million
This will have a little more legs as it’s meant for an older and more female audience. The only odd thing is Julie & Julia gained 109 theaters, right in this film’s demo.
Estimate: $10.4 million
A 59 percent drop last weekend, a 56 percent drop this weekend, and soon this title will be nothing but a memory. It’s already cracked $200m worldwide cume, but $400m now seems out of reach.
Estimate: $9.8 million
The budget was kind of a hefty $40m, given the scope of the movie. Where did all that money go? How much does it cost to film a dingy NYC apartment? It’s made $50m so far domestically, going to need a push overseas to start banking.
Estimate: $8.3 million
Not getting enough theaters to truly mount a charge. And after the flaming wreckage of Bandslam‘s release I think I’ve learned my lesson.
Estimate: $6.9 million
It’s the #6 talking animal live action film of all time. And Dr. Dolittle 2 better watch out!
Estimate: $4.6 million
It cleared $3.6m last weekend, let’s throw another $2.5m into the mix.
Estimate: $2.5 million
It will clear $10m this weekend, but I have a hard time determining where success is for this project. What could it have cost? $10m? I suppose we can safely say it’s not going to set any records./div>
Estimate: $2.4 million

So where am I off? Will Inglourious tank? Can District 9 repeat? And am I lowballing the weekend ($104m top 12) overall? Weigh in and be counted, all we have is our intellect.

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