Box-Office Oracle: Jul. 24 – Jul. 26, 2009

ON
#1 movie predicted correctly: 2 Weeks in a Row
I’m not dropping Half-Blood Prince anything nearing Order of the Phoenix‘s 58 percent. That film faced off against Hairspray and I Now Pronounce You Chuck and Larry. Compared to this weekend’s competition those two look stout. So I’m going with a 52.5 percent bleed, let the chips fall where they may.
Estimate: $37.0 million
If chipmunks can make cash then there is no reason to doubt guinea pigs. After all, I read guinea pigs are now expected to become the next big pet to own? What’s not to love? I’ve got it winning the per theater average battle (among wide releases, more on that later) … while losing the overall dollar war.
Estimate: $32.3 million
Is Katherine Heigl bankable? What about Gerard Butler? Sure, they’ve both been in films that made oodles, but do people head out to the theater to take it what looks to be a formulaic rom-com (full disclosure: I haven’t seen it)? It will do a decent $6500 per theater, but that’s as far as I can take it.
Estimate: $18.7 million
I’ll admit it, slotting this film in at $5k per theater means I don’t know what to make of it. If I thought it was doomed I’d call it $3k per. If I loved its chances I’d say $8k per was doable. As it stands I’m going safe, right in the middle.
Estimate: $13.8 million
An accelerated decline due to the demo competition at the top. Still, at $618m worldwide cume on a reported production budget of $90m they can’t be too upset.
Estimate: $9.1 million
It’s fallen 43 percent each of the last two weekends. I see no reason to buck that trend.
Estimate: $6.6 million
The Ugly Truth is going to hurt it, though that’s fighting over scraps.
Estimate: $5.4 million
The highest grossing R Rated comedy of all time, if you don’t adjust for inflation. Of course, I do adjust for inflation. Why doesn’t everyone?
Estimate: $5.3 million
Doesn’t have much chance of making back its budget after studio / distributor split is factored in. Are we seeing the last days of big budget Michael Mann films?
Estimate: $3.5 million
This very easily could be Bruno, but that one lost so many theaters I had to ding it. Besides, Hurt Locker is getting rave reviews. Not from me, but from some folk. That might be enough to push it into big numbers in the city theaters it will inhabit.
Estimate: $2.6 million

Am I being too hard on Kat Heigl? Do you see G-Force stealing the crown? Am I giving Potter too much credit? Weigh in with your thoughts and predictions below!