Box-Office Wrap-Up: Jul. 17 – Jul. 19, 2009

As it turns out, I was closest on the Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince number, somewhere in the single digits variance range. But alert commenter John might be on to something: All fan based movies are looking extremely front-loaded these days. If something opens Wednesday that’s when it will bank, it’s too risky to wait around for spoilers in the world of twitter, text, and IM.
#1 movie predicted correctly: 2 Weeks In A Row
It cracked $200m (worldwide cume) this weekend, but clearly it has a ton of work to do. I’m now not so certain about it hitting a billion. We’ll know by next weekend how word of mouth is going to treat it. I’m glad I rebounded from overrating its Wed/Thurs numbers. We’re now back to accurate rating.
Result: 79.4 million (My rank: #1, $5.3m off)
Only one film this year has grossed more than Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs. Wanna take a guess?
Result: 17.7 million (My rank: #2, $1.5m off)
Correct. Michael Bay is still on top. We’re now more than halfway home too, this was the 29th weekend of the year.
Result: 13.7 million (My rank: #3, $1.6m off)
Bustray was dialed in here. An astounding 73 percent dip, the 31st biggest drop in the history of movies. This clearly had no legs.
Result: 8.3 million (My rank: #4, $5.5m off)
That’s seven weekends in a row in the top six for The Hangover. It probably can’t crack the top 10 (worldwide yearly cume) before it exits theaters though, it’s $40m back of Fast and Furious and Up is still out there earning.
Result: 8.3 million (My rank: #7, $.8m off)
I wasn’t that far off, I just thought The Hangover would dive at least 20 percent.
Result: 8.2 million (My rank: #5, $.6m off)
Oddly enough, this fell the third most of the weekend, right behind Beth Cooper and Bruno. It seems as though audiences never really connected with the latest Mann vehicle.
Result: 7.5 million (My rank: #6, $.5m off)
8. Up
I thought Potter would take a little more from it. It didn’t.
Result: 3.1 million (My rank: #10, $.8m off)
I nailed the next two dollar amounts but my order is all jumbled up. Most of y’all were too hard on Cooper or Sister’s Keeper – but at this point the dollar amounts are so low that you can’t really knock any prediction.
Result: 2.8 million (My rank: #8, Dead On)
Only falling 46 percent was more a result of no one seeing it the first weekend than a comment on its quality.
Result: 2.6 million (My rank: #9, Dead On)

You’ve got to like Potter, right? But how much will it fall? Will our new “fan frontloaded” maxim come into effect? While you’re answering those questions, throw in a number for The Ugly Truth, G-Force and Orphan if you’re feeling brave.