Box-Office Oracle: Jul. 3 – Jul. 5, 2009

It’s difficult to find much recent precedent for animation over the 4th of July. I know that Wednesday and Thursday will hurt it a little bit — but I still have it going big.

Estimate: $55.9 million

Heavily frontloaded. The baseline bleed for Wednesday openings that pivot to a holiday weekend is about 57%. I’ve put this on a 61% bleed. Even if you’re one of the people who likes it, you’ve got to admit that hasn’t been the uniform response. This weekend the folks who hate this one will see some proof they’re not alone.

Estimate: $42.5 million

I liked it, but there are definitely reasons to be worried about its box-office prospects. It’s a bit slow. it’s a bit long. And it’s not a sequel or a remake, which makes marketing it tougher. I hope people see it. But I don’t see a huge number here.

Estimate: $23.2 million

The Hangover will challenge it for fourth. That may be the only real drama of the weekend – unless you’ve got Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen making a serious charge.

Estimate: $11.3 million

Does anyone have an R Rated film that can top The Hangover‘s eventual $250m worldwide cume for 2009? Inglourious Basterds and Bruno are my prime candidates, but I wouldn’t call either of them a sure thing.

Estimate: $10.1 million

Seriously, who saw this? I know one of you out there couldn’t resist. Fess up, and tell the group what we missed.

Estimate: $6.8 million

Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs will take a huge chunk out of its flank this weekend. But who has waited this long to see Up? You really should’ve seen Up already. Oracle mandate.

Estimate: $4.5 million

Angels & Demons and Terminator: Salvation were both released after Star Trek. And both are already out of the top ten. Respect.

Estimate: $2.4 million

But I know we’re all anxiously awaiting the unrated cut.

Estimate: $2.0 million

Clearly this won’t match the box-office power of last weekend. But if my numbers hold it will finish third for the year, not too shabby.

Estimate: $1.5 million