Box-Office Wrap-Up: Jun. 26 – Jun. 28, 2009

Right now Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen is 2.4m short of Dark Knight‘s five day opening. Based on today’s estimates we are left with Revenge of the Fallen at $201.4m vs. The Dark Knight‘s $203.8m. But there are still three scenarios that could play out.
  1. They’ve underestimated Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen‘s Sunday.
  2. Word of mouth is already catching up and the $112m is actually a bit high
  3. They are dead on and Dark Knight has retained the throne.

While I hope Dark Knight retains the crown (I’ve yet to hear anyone argue Transformers 2 was superior) I don’t have a good feel either way. So let’s break down the numbers we’ve got and go from there.

#1 movie predicted correctly: 1 Week In A Row
The consensus was that I was too high with my number. But I’m looking pretty close. The only people closer were Nick and Gophers Attack! – but they both took aim on Friday… so I can only issue partial credit. My Friday projection of $39m was the most problematic as the number came in at $36.8m. Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen stands at $281m worldwide, it had the biggest opening weekend of the year, the biggest June opening ever, and stands to break the five day and quickest to $200m number too, all depending on the Sunday actuals. Thus, though I didn’t love it, I have to respect the box-0ffice might of the thing. Looking forward, will it be heavily front loaded? I would say hell… to-the-yes.
Result: 112.0 million (My rank: #1, $3.1m off)
My biggest miss of the weekend was The Hangover. It finally bowed to conventional math. The Proposal was exactly what we though it was, a 45% dipper.
Result: 18.4 million (My rank: #2, $.2m off)
It had fallen 27% and 18% in prior weekends, so you can see why I was thrown off. But clearly Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen hit it in the demo. Still, $213m worldwide cume on a budget of $35. Very nice math for Warners this summer.
Result: 17.2 million (My rank: #, $m off)
4. Up
Re: summer Oscar love, Crash was mentioned, as was Gladiator, Braveheart, Unforgiven, The Silence of the Lambs, and Forrest Gump. To which I say, as communication gets faster and faster summer gets father and farther away from the nomination process. Crash was in 2005 against a weak crowd. Little Miss Sunshine was in July, but at an extremely slow burn. My gut instinct is that if I looked at the release dates it’s gotten harder in this decade to pull a summer nom. But I’ll look at it and report back, promise.
Result: 13.0 million (My rank: #4, $4.4m off)
It was the biggest weekend of the summer. Not nearly as big as I predicted, but still $25m more than the second place weekend.
Result: 12.0 million (My rank: #5, $4.9m off)
They need to have Jack Black and Michael Cera go door to door in support of this one. Otherwise it’s not going to make it.
Result: 5.8 million (My rank: #6, $5m off)
Is Tony Scott still a box-office guy? Another gut instinct: He was massive in the ’80s, solid in the ’90s and very hit or miss in this decade.
Result: 5.4 million (My rank: #7, $1.2m off)
It’s still the number two box-office film of 2009 (Up took the top spot this weekend), but Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen is less than $100m behind. Which is a shame, I really think Star Trek captured a nice balance between commerce and character development.
Result: 3.6 million (My rank: #9, $.4m off)
It still needs $4m to catch Wolverine for fourth overall this year, though of course they’ll both be passed by Potter, Ice Age, Avatar and Transformers 2.
Result: 3.5 million (My rank: #8, $1.5m off)
Nice! No, it wasn’t anywhere near my lofty $4m projection, but it did manage to come in tenth place. I’ll take it, which brings us to next week…
Result: 1.6 million (My rank: #10, $2.4m off)

Can Public Enemies get in the $50s (the number probably needed to have a shot at knocking off Revenge of the Fallen)? And don’t look now, but the last Ice Age made $68m opening weekend, which would definitely be enough to make Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen a one and done. Gonna to be interesting. What’s your early call?

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