Box-Office Oracle Extra: Predicting Wed/Thurs Numbers for ‘Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen’

Megan Fox and Shia LaBeouf in Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen

Photo: DreamWorks and Paramount Pictures

When looking at the potential Wed-Thurs box-office grosses for Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen we need some context. First off, the original opened with $27m on a Tuesday. So you’ve got to figure the sequel will do more than that. Next, for the sake of argument, here’s the top ten Wednesday openings (via BoxOfficeMojo):

  1. Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix: $44.2 million
  2. Spider-Man 2: $40.4 million
  3. The Lord of the Rings: Return of the King: $34.5 million
  4. Star Wars: Episode I – The Phantom Menace: $28.5 million
  5. The Passion of the Christ: $26.6 million
  6. The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers: $26.2 million
  7. The Matrix Revolutions: $24.3 million
  8. War of the Worlds: $21.3 million
  9. Jurassic Park III: $19.0 million
  10. Men in Black II: $18.6 million

80% of the list is comprised of franchises; 30% of the films represented are number two in the series. So not a ton of help there. Two of the films were released in June (Spider-Man 2, War of the Worlds) — but both were released in late June, the 29th and 30th, respectively. Projections have ranged from $30m to $60m for Wednesday, and of course the number will be less on Thursday (the reasoning being those who don’t see it right away will hold off until Friday).

Revenge of the Fallen is getting 4000+ theaters domestically, so no concerns there. Though Brad didn’t love it (and he’s 100% correct), reviews and word-of-mouth won’t do any damage until next weekend. So here goes nothing, a number I feel is “safe” as it ends up falling right in the middle of everything I’ve seen and really serves as more of a conversation starter than anything.

Wednesday: $43 million

Thursday: $27 million

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Total: $70 million

I’ll be the first to admit Wed/Thurs numbers aren’t as easy as weekend numbers, so I look forward to your input. I could see as high as $55m (and the record) on Wednesday, or as low as in the $30s. Thursday will probably be 60% of Wednesday’s total. So go for it, comment away, and we’ll be right back here on Thursday to figure out if a $100 million weekend is a given.

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