Looking at this weekend’s release of Terminator Salvation I can’t help but think that on paper it has serious potential to become the highest grossing film of 2009. It is part of a beloved franchise, it stars Christian Bale whom many can now associate with Batman, the trailers look impressive and it’s rated PG-13, which brings in a whole new audience that would have either had to sneak in by paying for another film or not seen it at all. Of course, the early reviews aren’t exactly falling head over heels for it, but the most hateful of the bunch being The Hollywood Reporter saying, “It’s just not the same without the Governator,” leads me to believe they may have done into the film with the wrong frame of mind. I am seeing it tonight and will hopefully be able to make a better determination after that, but I wanted to post this question before I could judge. Because, if Terminator Salvation isn’t a very good movie I can very easily see it dropping off quickly after what I believe we all expect to be a big four-day weekend. So what’s next?
The next obvious choice, in my mind, is Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen on June 24. Like the first movie or not, it grossed $319 million domestically and $708 million worldwide all while carrying a 57% RottenTomatoes rating. If Revenge of the Fallen manages to meet the levels of mediocrity of the first film all while being accompanied by spectacular visual effects I see no reason why it wouldn’t surpass the first film’s box-office tally, but if it is more of the same it may not be able to live up to its predecessor’s high mark, which was third only to Spider-Man 3 and Shrek the Third in 2007.
In July we have Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince, but as successful as these films are only one of them has topped $300 million and that just so happens to be the very first one at $317 million. However, the most recent installment, Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix, sits at number two, but to say the fact it was screened in 4,285 (over 400 more than the second in line) didn’t help matters would be quite ignorant. No, as cool as Half-Blood Prince looks I just don’t see it being the one.
This leaves, in my opinion, only one other film that could potentially take the top spot: James Cameron’s Avatar.
Avatar has been talked about in geek circles for what feels like forever, but that talk hasn’t extended outside of those circles just yet. To assume this 3-D sci-fi actioner that is expected to change the way we look at movies will be the highest grossing film of 2009 isn’t a ridiculous notion and it’s not even a bold prediction, but if ever a film depended on quality over spectacle I would assume this is it.
So many questions are still unanswered about Avatar. Those that have seen footage have gushed about it, but it sounds like it is something we will have to see to believe. If word continues down the current path, Cameron may have found himself another top film.
So far this year the top five films at the box-office look like this:
- Monsters Vs. Aliens ($190,552,000)
- Fast and Furious ($152,908,000)
- X-Men Origins: Wolverine ($151,091,000)
- Star Trek ($147,611,000)
- Paul Blart: Mall Cop ($145,790,203)
Not since the year 2000 has the number one film at the box-office not grossed over $300 million and I find it hard to believe 2009 will be any different, recession or not. However, what film(s) will reach that mark and/or exceed it?
If you think it might be Pixar’s Up, remember no Pixar film other than Finding Nemo has cracked the $300 million mark. WALL•E managed only $223m and Ratatouille $206m.
Maybe you think Night at the Museum 2: Battle of the Smithsonian will do it considering the first one made over $250 million. Land of the Lost looks like it may be funny, but I am not putting my money on a fantasy comedy. Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs may look promising to some, but Ice Age 2 didn’t even hit the $200 million mark.
If you are thinking about banking on G.I. Joe: Rise of Cobra perhaps it’s best to look at the Stephen Sommers box-office franchise and see The Mummy Returns is his highest grossing film at $202 million.
Disney’s A Christmas Carol may look promising, but The Polar Express managed only $180 million lifetime gross and Beowulf only $82 million. If we were talking about $200 million being the box-office king then maybe The Twilight Saga: New Moon would be in the conversation just as we would also have to mention Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Squeakuel after the first film made $217 million.
So what’s it going to be? You tell me…
[poll id = ’58’]
