Box-Office Oracle: Mar. 20 – Mar. 22, 2009

ON
#1 movie predicted correctly: 2 Weeks in a Row
This weekend is a nightmare to predict. Partly because it will be a very weak box-office weekend. And partly because there isn’t really a film to champion. I’m taking I Love You, Man because I feel like awareness of Rudd and Segel is rising, whereas awareness of Nic Cage is high… and also dismissive.
Estimate: $18.3 million
Clive Owen! Julia Roberts! It’s actually a decent film too. But it’s only got 2400 theaters and I can only bequeath it $6,500 per theater. Still, I wouldn’t be upset if date night carried the weekend.
Estimate: $15.6 million
This looks like a combination of Next and Push. And neither of those films made any money. Nic Cage is on what we call the “downslope” of his box-office career.
Estimate: $15.0 million
I’m only dropping it 43.5% because no other kiddie fare is being released. Dwayne Johnson is on the “upslope” of his career, for the record.
Estimate: $13.8 million
The sort-of good news is that this one will only slip 55% this weekend. After the Watchpocalypse of last weekend I’m sure Warner Bros. is relieved.
Estimate: $7.5 million
The history of horror films dictates a 63% drop. It’s not me, it’s destiny.
Estimate: $5.2 million
Regardless of what you think of it, it’s been a financial bonanza. It’s probably the best planning of 2008-2009. It will make the top ten next weekend too – the slate of new movies is pretty disastrous after Monsters vs. Aliens.
Estimate: $4.7 million
The next Tyler Perry movie is due in September. So we’re looking at two a year from here on out, $80 million box-office per, for our main man T-Perr.
Estimate: $3.2 million
Well, it won’t hit $300m (unless China really delivers) but I’d say Danny Boyle is in line for a big ol’ budget going forward. Here’s the tough question though: does he need it?
Estimate: $3.1 million
$138m domestically. $1m internationally. But it’s still opening in quite a few international markets left, so it should make a tidy $20m overseas too.
Estimate: $2.1 million

Wanna get in an early prediction for next weekend? Monsters vs. Aliens should take it easily, but you can throw in a prediction for 12 Rounds or Haunting in Connecticut if you like.

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