Well folks, we have just over two weeks before the Oscars and I will probably only do one more Oscar prediction piece before that time with all the bells, whistles and user polls — that is unless something drastically changes, which is rather unlikely. This week I have made only two changes, the first being with Best Director as Danny Boyle now tops my chart as his win with the Directors Guild pretty much sealed the deal.
The only other change comes in the Best Supporting Actress category and I am going all the way back to the prediction I made on November 20, 2008 in this category and going with Penelope Cruz for Vicky Cristina Barcelona after I bumped her all the way down to third last week. Let me explain my thinking behind this one.
The way I looked at it the Actor, Actress and Supporting Actor are three categories that are all sewn up. If they weren’t sewn up it meant Rourke may win instead of Penn or Streep would win instead of Winslet. I don’t think anyone can look at either of those scenarios as upsets. However, looking at the Supporting Actress category we had the chance for the Academy to throw a little spice into the mixture. A moment for the Academy to be unique, something we all know they love to do. So I thought, “What the hell? Why not Taraji?” and went with it and assumed I may actually take it all the way to the 22nd. Apparently I’m not that strong as I have buckled after only seven days, but it is more of a result of looking at all five candidates as possible upsets. I would say this is the best category of candidates on the nomination board when looked at on a whole even if you don’t agree with one or two of the nominations. Each actress carries a unique talent with them without a flaw among them. Therefore, there really is no monkey wrench to be thrown into the category and the traditional front-runner can come to the forefront.
There are, of course, a few other factors that come into play such as I discussed over here, but I will keep those two arguments separate from each other.
Looking over the list right now I really think I have it nailed and don’t anticipate anymore changes, that is unless Rourke takes it instead of Penn and Streep takes home Oscar #3 over Winslet’s chance at numero uno. Either could happen and I wouldn’t be surprised. The Supporting Actress category is one that remains slightly in the air and I think at this point is the only topline category worth discussing at length, but I would love to hear from you either way.
Do any of my decisions seem too far off base? Tell me where you think I am wrong.
You can keep up with all my Oscar coverage in my “The Contenders” section right here.
Click on the Next Page link to take a look at the predictions and
