Box-Office Oracle: July 14 – July 16

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Two smaller features come out this weekend in the form of You, Me, and Dupree (review here) and Little Man (review here). In one corner you’ve got an average comedy hoping and praying it splashes big in week one (Dupree) to gain some traction. In the other you’ve got a miserable comedy (Little Man) that knows it only has first weekend box to hope for before word of mouth spreads that it’s utter crap. Either way both of them are getting dominated by Capt. Jack Sparrow.

#1 movie predicted correctly: Three Weeks In A Row (might as well call it four because Dupree and Little Man have about as much chance of knocking Pirates off as say mid-east peace within the next 10 minutes).

1. Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest $65.1m

It broke the record and now the only question that remains is the drop-off from that giant number. Anything less than 50 percent means in general the public liked it. Figure this one out though: the Tomato people have Superman Returns at a fresh 75 percent rating. Pirates rolls in at a rotten 54 percent. What does this mean? Sadly it means that critics are morons. (Except me, Brad, and Dre) (We’re brilliant)

2. You, Me, and Dupree $22.2m

It’s always really hard to judge comedy. I’m putting it at 75 percent of Wedding Crashers opening because they’ve got no Vince Vaughn. I would be shocked if it did less but not if it does more, even much more.

3. Little Man $16.5m

It’s only moderately ironic that a film called Little Man will be beating Supe this weekend.

4. Superman Returns $9.7m

Turns out the real Kryptonite is that it’s not a good movie. After the 58 percent free-fall last weekend there really is no telling what will happen here but I see a little rebound as they starting bussing the nursing homes to this one.

5. The Devil Wears Prada $7.6m

This will be hurt a bunch by old Dupree even though they are way different. Unfortunately When the people walk up to the ticket office they couldn’t possibly know that unless they had both my reviews side by side in their grimy little fingers.

6. Cars $7.4m

This one will continue to hang out until Monster House beats it down. Cars sort of has the trifecta going, a solid 76% from the tomato people, a nice B review on the site and real healthy box office drop-off numbers. At the end of the day I think this animation team can sit back and smoke a stogie.

7. Click $7.2

Wouldn’t just once you love to see a major star say “you know what, this is garbage,” when they were doing press? I know they’d get shunned by the big studios then but they’d gain a measure of respect from everyone else. Sandler, you’ve gotten a few weeks box out of this one, why not finally come clean?

8. The Lake House $1.3m

$1.3m? Really? Is that number right? Let’s see here, carry the one, it’s in 700 less theaters, okay, yeah, that number is right. Now, let’s calculate the chances that I hit the eight through ten slots given the $300k difference between them. Okay, I’ve got the number, mark it zero dude. DAMN YOU SMALL FILMS!

9. Nacho Libre $1.0m

I wonder what the hell happened to the Tenacious D flick? I could really use that about now… it’s been like four years since the album and I’m going through withdrawal something fierce.

10. The Fast and the Furious 3: Tokyo Drift $1.0m

Our last weekend seeing the drift in the top ten, we’ll miss you buddy. Read the review for old time’s sake here. See you when we recap this zany weekend on Monday (Sunday night for you West Coast viewers).

The new movie book is coming, and it will be better than ever. Stay tuned. -Laremy

Box Office

Weekend: Nov. 15, 2018, Nov. 18, 2018

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