It’s hard to believe that the 83rd Annual Academy Awards are just days away, and ComingSoon.net’s The Oscar Warrior has now had a chance to see every single one of the movies that has received nominations in all categories including the 15 short films, and he’s come up with what he hopes will be the definitive analysis of the Oscar race. A lot has changed in the months since our earlier predictions, which you can read here and here,and because of that, a few of our picks have changed since our earlier predictions. There’s still some room for Oscar night surprises in a couple of the categories. Art Direction
Costume Design This award specifically for the costumes almost always goes to a period piece, which would give King’s Speech the advantage, except that this category is just right up the alley for the amazing outfits created for Burton’s Alice in Wonderland, so it’s likely costume designer Colleen Atwood will add a third Oscar to her mantle following Chicago and Memoirs of a Geisha. (It would also make it the sixth year in a row the Oscar in this category went to a movie not even nominated for Best Picture.) Makeup There are three very different movies nominated for this award, and the most obvious choice would be The Wolfman, because it does involve the most drastic amount of make-up FX and genre films have long been winners here going back to the first Oscar in this category for An American Werewolf in London. That went to Rick Baker who has won six previous times, but the award has also often gone to films where actors are shown at a lot of different ages, which is the case with the actors in Richard Lewis’ Barney’s Version (Sony Pictures Classics). While most Oscar pundits are going with Baker, we think this one is going to Barney’s Version because it’s actually a good movie and not just about good make-up. Film Editing
Sound Mixing This is the more straightforward of the sound categories in that it basically involves the mixing of music, dialogue and sound FX, a category that’s often gone to big budget blockbusters like Peter Jackson’s The Lord of the Rings and King Kong, though it’s also been awarded to musicals and movie that rely heavily on music. With nothing in the latter category in this year’s offerings, it seems likely that Christopher Nolan’s bombastic sound for Inception will be considered more impressive than the others, although Best Picture favorites The Social Network or The King’s Speech could pull out a surprise win. Sound Editing What differentiates this category from Sound Mixing is that this is about the actual sound effects, which is why this often goes to war movies like Michael Bay’s Pearl Harbor and others, but this one is probably going to be Richard King’s to win for Inception, which would make it his second Oscar. The only possible spoiler in this category may be TRON: Legacy, though the fact that it wasn’t even nominated for the visual effects category makes one think it didn’t really impress the Academy’s tech voters. Visual Effects This is the first year with five nominees in the one category that often can award summer blockbusters for the amount of money they spend on cool CG FX and while only the second “Harry Potter” movie to be nominated may seem like an obvious choice, the Academy are more likely to wait until the final chapter later this year. That makes this another guaranteed Oscar win for Nolan’s Inception. Cinematography
Music (Original Score) There are plenty of options in this category including the soundtracks for the two Best Picture frontrunners, though in the last 15 years, only three Best Picture winners have also won in this category. Unfortunately, one of those is Shakespeare in Love, the movie that this year’s frontrunner The King’s Speech is being compared to the most, and composer Alexandre Desplat is going on his fourth nomination in five years, which might make him the favorite. Lots of Nine Inch Nails fans would love to see Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross win for The Social Network, as they did at the Golden Globes, though it’s an electronic score that goes against the grain of what normally wins. Similarly, Hans Zimmer’s score for Inception is his best work in years and it certainly is the biggest and most prominent score, although it’s also far less conventional than previous scores for which he’s been nominated. We think this is going to be a surprise win for former Zimmer collaborator John Powell and his score for How to Train Your Dragon, which many actual music lovers feel is the strongest work, which works as well on its own as it does with the picture. Music (Original Song) This is another difficult category as two Disney songs are vying for the win with “I See the Light” from Tangled having the benefits of being written by the biggest winner in this category to date, Alan Menken. 19-time song nominee Randy Newman was snubbed twice last year for his songs for The Princess and the Frog and he’s only won one Oscar after all these years though his song “We Belong Together” from the Pixar blockbuster Toy Story 3 should benefit from the fact that so many people will know the movie and hopefully it will fare better than “You’ve Got a Friend in Me,” the beloved song from the first “Toy Story,” which lost to Menken’s “Colors of the Wind” from Pocahontas. (Does anyone even remember that song?) A.R. Rhaman became the third foreign composer to win in this category with Slumdog Millionaire‘s inescapable “Jai Ho,” though his new song “If I Rise” for Danny Boyle’s follow-up 127 Hours with Dido hasn’t had the same impact and “Coming Home” from Country Song seems to have been nominated just to give Gwyneth Paltrow another chance to sing at an awards show. While Alan Menken’s return with Tangled may be welcomed by Academy members who missed his sensibilities, we think this is Randy Newman’s year to win only his second Oscar after winning for Monsters, Inc. ten years ago. (Thanks to Magnolia Pictures and Shorts International for providing screeners of all the films in the three shorts programs, which are still playing in select cities and some of which are now available on iTunes.) Short Film (Animated)
Pixar Animation has had seven short films nominated going back to 1997’s “Geri’s Game” which won the Oscar in this category. Teddy Newton’s “Day & Night” played in front of Toy Story 3, the biggest movie of 2010 (and potentially the winner in the feature length animation category), so a lot more voters are likely to be familiar with it and have seen it on the big screen. It’s extremely complex in the way it mixes two seemingly 2D characters with 3D environments, and it’s an incredibly mature work rather than just being a bit of comic entertainment. Britain’s Magic Light Pictures is offering the overly-long fable “The Gruffalo,” which is sure to get the British Academy members’ votes, especially those with kids who will already know the tale, but more than the other films, it’s kiddie stuff that is impressive for its big name voice cast and that alone. “Let’s Pollute” by Geefwee Boedoe is a witty and ironic response to movies like An Inconvenient Truth suggesting viewers do the exact opposite of what all the liberal doc filmmakers are telling you; it’s funny but the writing and animation are far more primitive than the other choices for it to be taken seriously as a contender. Similarly, the Australian short “The Lost Thing” by Shaun Tan and Andrew Ruhemann is quite clever and quirky and pleasant enough as well, but it just doesn’t seem distinctive enough to be remembered. “Madagascar (Carnet de Voyage” (no relation to the DreamWorks Animation movies!) by Bastien Dubois uses rotoscoping and other animation techniques to create a travelogue of the country, capturing all aspects of the culture there. It’s really quite masterful and it could be the spoiler for “Day & Night” in that it will appeal to the more mature Oscar voters over some of the kiddie stuff. Still, we think “Day & Night” is too powerful and poignant to ignore so it should be Pixar’s first win in this category since 2001’s “For the Birds” ten years ago. Short Film (Live Action) Four out of the five shorts this year are in English including a duo from Ireland, a country that’s produced a number of Oscar nominees in this category as well as Martin McDonagh’s winning “Six Shooter” a few years back. While Michael Creagh’s “The Crush” about a schoolboy showing feelings for his teacher is cute, Tanel Toom’s “The Confession” is a stronger drama about a pair of boys whose prank goes horribly wrong. We kinda dug New Yorker Luke Matheny’s black-and-white jazz-infused “God of Love,” but it’s probably a bit too young and hip for Oscar voters, and Brit Ian Barnes’ “Wish 143” about a boy with cancer looking to get laid is nice enough but just seems too erratic and all over the place in terms of tone. The French-language war-torn Burundi-based “Na Wewe,” involving a van stopped by Hutu soldiers looking to kill all the Tsutsis, is a strong message movie that Oscar voters should appreciate even if they may not be able to relate to it as much otehrs. Being the simplest in terms of storytelling should help it defeat “The Confession,” which is the most skilled in terms of filmmaking. Documentary Short Subject In a category with many lengthy offerings, this one tends to be a crapshoot because like in the feature documentary category, so few Oscar voters make an effort to see all five movies.
Apparently, voters who’ve seen Karen Goodman and Kirk Simon’s “Strangers No More” about Bialik-Rogozin, a Hebrew school in Israel where kids struggling in war-torn countries come together, are digging it, and it has just the right heartstring-pulling elements to win over voters, although so does Jennifer Redfearn and Tim Metzger’s “Sun Come Up,” about an island village forced to relocate due to the rising waters that threatens to envelope their home. In our trained opinion, “Killing in the Name” is the best doc of the bunch just because it goes into dark territory where few filmmakers have gone before, and “Sun Comes Up” is an incredibly memorable story, but we think the crowd favorite “Strangers No More” will win just because it has a similar feel good overtones as previous winners “Music by Prudence” and “Smile Pinki” and like those, it also deals with kids, which seems to be a driving force for getting Oscar votes. Documentary Feature This is an interesting category mainly in the number of high profile docs that were omitted such as David Guggenheim’s Waiting for Superman, Alex Gibney’s Client 9 and The Tillman Story, yet there are still three fairly high-profile docs taking on two underdogs which should lead to interesting results. There are a lot of fans of Banksy’s cheekily self-aware semi-doc Exit Through the Gift Shop that might go for the more unconventional choice in hopes the enigmatic filmmaker might show up to the awards, though there’s no denying the powerful war footage shot for the Afghanistan-based doc Restrepo (National Geographic) makes it a serious contender. The similarly-named Gasland and Waste Land are fairly low profile films that are lucky to get in, though neither really have much of a chance to pull a surprise win ala Born Into Brothels. Banksy’s film has a lot of fans and it’s certainly funny and entertaining, but so was Morgan Spurlock’s Super Size Me, which many felt would win that year before it lost to Brothels. That leaves Charles Ferguson’s second Oscar-nominated doc Inside Job (Sony Pictures Classics), which we think will have just the right resonance with everyone in the industry to the current economic climate to win over Oscar voters and pull out the victory. Animated Feature Film At this point, it’s a foregone conclusion that Lee Unkrich’s Toy Story 3 (DisneyPixar) has this one in the bag being that it was the only animated feature nominated in the Best Picture category, similar to Up last year. It’s also the highest grossing movie of 2010, which means that very few Oscar voters will have missed it. Pixar Animation has won this category every year they’ve been nominated other than 2001 when it lost to Shrek. It’s the clear no-brainer favorite to win and the only thing that may hold it back is that it’s a sequel and some Oscar voters might consider it a kiddie movie, so the members not into that kind of thing might go for Sylvain Chomet’s The Illusionist, though there won’t be enough of that small group to give it a surprise win, guaranteeing another Oscar in the Pixar offices next Monday. Foreign Language Film
Writing (Original Screenplay) Although David Seidler’s screenplay for The King’s Speech (Weinstein Company) didn’t get nominated for a Writers Guild award, it’s not only a great script but Seidler has an amazing story that will help him win over Oscar voters who already clearly love the movie, having struggled to write and sell the script for years. Christopher Nolan’s uniquely original but challenging script for Inception won the WGA, and the only other screenplay that might be under consideration is Lisa Cholodenko’s for The Kids Are All Right (Focus Features), but this is Seidler’s to lose. Writing (Adapted Screenplay) Last year, this category delivered the most shocking win of the night over the clear-cut favorite, but that won’t happen this year because one thing everyone agrees on is that Aaron Sorkin’s screenplay for The Social Network (Sony) is nothing short of brilliance incarnate. This one is a lock. Actress in a Supporting Role
At this point, there seems to be so much indecision there’s just as likely a chance that Helena Bonham Carter might take this one. To use Leo’s word of choice, “Consider” the actresses who have won in this category in past years. With Mo’Nique being an exception, this Oscar has often gone to older veteran actresses who have been around for a while with the likes of Rachel Weisz, Tilda Swinton and Cate Blanchett winning over other actresses who have won the SAG or the Golden Globe in this category. Normally, Leo might be the surprise winner if she hadn’t already won the precursors. With that in mind, you would think that any voter who had seen and liked The King’s Speech (which is many, going by the turning of tides for the film as the Best Picture favorite) will easily remember Bonham in the movie and mark her name down on their ballot. So there you have it; that’s how Helena Bonham Carter wins her first Oscar. Actor in a Supporting Role This category seems like far more of a no-brainer than its female counterpart with an easy win for Christian Bale’s portrayal of Dicky Edlund in David O. Russell’s The Fighter (Paramount), a transformative performance that made Bale unrecognizable from previous roles. Paramount has been pushing this in a big way with tons of commercials and ads but the performance stacks up, and the only possible spoiler is Geoffrey Rush for The King’s Speech. Though that movie is also generating heat with Rush winning the BAFTA, it seems that Bonham Carter pulling out a surprise win in her category and Firth being the favorite for Lead Actor might keep Rush on the sidelines. Actress in a Leading Role This year’s race once again comes down to two actresses and heat has been picking up for Annette Bening’s performance in Lisa Cholodenko’s The Kids Are All Right, mainly because she’s been nominated four times without a win, similar as Kate Winslet a few years back. Even so, her performance is not even close to the same level as Natalie Portman in Black Swan (Fox Searchlight), which is why she’s been winning everything up until this point. We don’t expect to see a surprise turnaround on Oscar night ala Marian Cotillard–who beat out the significantly older favorite Julie Christie–Portman is just as deserving, having acted for 17 years herself. Actor in a Leading Role This one is this year’s one true no-brainer that the actor who has been a frontrunner ever since his movie played the festival circuit, and there’s little doubt Colin Firth will win his first Oscar for The King’s Speech without breaking a sweat. Any other contender who has received support such as James Franco or Jesse Eisenberg will likely split up any remaining votes, just helping Firth coast past them for his first Oscar after only two nominations. Directing When David Fincher didn’t win the Directors Guild award, a lot of people felt The Social Network was doomed for winning Best Picture and that Fincher was jinxed in this category, but we have to remember that the DGA is a different group made up solely of directors (and only a small percentage who are also in the Academy) while this category will be voted on by the full Academy membership including producers and actors. The thing is that Fincher was already nominated once before for his previous movie The Curious Case of Benjamin Button and he’s a filmmaker who has a history of great filmmaking with The Social Network being a departure that has brought together all sorts of diverse groups supporting the film. While the movie may not have the warmth of The King’s Speech, his brilliant direction is hard to ignore, which is why his only competition Tom Hooper should accept his DGA graciously and look forward to being a future Oscar winner, ’cause this year, this is going to Fincher. Best Picture
Recap of our Predictions: Art Direction: Inception Costume Design: Alice in Wonderland Makeup: Barney’s Version Film Editing: The Social Network Sound Editing: Inception Sound Mixing: Inception Visual FX: Inception Cinematography: True Grit Music (Original Score): How to Train Your Dragon Music (Original Song): “We Belong Together” from Toy Story 3 Short Film (Animated): “Day & Night” Short Film (Live Action): “Na We We” Documentary Short Subject: “Strangers No More” Documentary Feature: Inside Job Animated Feature: Toy Story 3 Foreign Language Film: Biutiful Original Screenplay: The King’s Speech Adapted Screenplay: The Social Network Supporting Actress: Helena Bonham Carter, The King’s Speech Supporting Actor: Christian Bale, The Fighter Lead Actress: Natalie Portman, Black Swan Lead Actor: Colin Firth, The King’s Speech Direction: David Fincher, The Social Network Best Picture: The King’s Speech That would mean four Oscars for The King’s Speech and Inception, three for The Social Network, and two for The Fighter, although if one of the first three wins the Original Score category, that will up their total further, obviously. The Academy of Motion Pictures and Sciences will give out the 83rd Annual Academy Awards live on Sunday, February 27 on ABC. Show Comments |