Box-Office Oracle: Jun. 26 – Jun. 28, 2009

It crushed the Wednesday opening day record with an estimated $60.6m splash. Now then, as our only job here today is to figure out how much this monster will make over the next three days, let’s break down the math.

It should make $27m on Thursday, if it follows the math of Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix. After that, word of mouth could hurt it, but it has no real competition in terms of marketing or demographic. So I’m projecting it to go 39/42/34, for a massive $209.1m five day opening. I didn’t like the film, but it hardly matters, as I won’t have to buy a ticket for it to rake in the cash.

For the record Raichu had it at $55m on Wednesday, only $5m under. The closest was JAB’s aggresive $64m projection. But they are both now underneath my projection. Have I gone too high? Will negative word of mouth and reviews hurt this film? Or will it keep on keepin’ on? I think the absolute min/max is now $90m / $130m

Estimate: $115.1 million

I’ve only bled it five percent this weekend, it remains a summer success story.

Estimate: $25.3 million

It’ nicely positioned as the quid pro quo for Revenge of the Fallen night. Plus it’s gaining two whole theaters. That should be the difference.

Estimate: $18.6 million

The three through five slots are definitely a horse race. Re: Up‘s Oscar chances the issue is no longer animation. It’s proximity to nomination season. If Pixar ever wants a shoo-in they need to open in October or November. Summer films don’t get nominated because the Academy has the memory of a medium sized ferret.

Estimate: $17.4 million

It’s hard for me to fathom that anyone wants to see this. But two million people will.

Estimate: $16.9 million

Hey, here’s another movie gaining exactly two theaters. Not much else to talk about with this title, it’s pretty much a financial disaster for Sony.

Estimate: $10.8 million

I’ve got the top twelve films grossing $239m this weekend, which would be the highest grossing weekend of the year by far (second place being the weekend of May 22 when Night at the Museum 2 led the charge to a $169m top twelve).

Estimate: $6.6 million

It has a shot to pass X-Men Origins: Wolverine this weekend for the fourth highest 2009 Worldwide Cume. Then it will only be $8m away from the second slot, with Star Trek and Monsters vs. Aliens in the way…

Estimate: $5.0 million

…but only Transformers, Harry Potter, and possibly Avatar have a legit shot at Angels & Demons $460m.

Estimate: $4.0 million

It’s getting almost 500 theaters this weekend. That will be good enough for tenth place.

Estimate: $4.0 million