It’s that time of year again folks as the Golden Globe winners have been announced and there were certainly some surprises and that’s what makes this little yearly feature so much fun. Just how often do the Golden Globe winners match up with the eventual Oscar winners? Can they be used to determine who will go home with the golden knight or are they best left to figure out who won’t be going home with hardware from the Academy? Luckily, I am making it easier for you to figure that out for yourself as I bring you the latest update to my “Globes vs. Oscars” column, something I have done for the last few years (2005, 2007, 2008).
This will take a look at how the past 24 years of Golden Globe winner history compare to the Oscars. Will this give you an idea of who will win? Let’s see…
Last night Kate Winslet (The Reader) and Heath Ledger (The Dark Knight) took home the Golden Globes for Supporting Actress and Actor. I think we all know Heath is going to win the Oscar, but what about Winslet? I mean, she has come out of nowhere in the past week (much to my delight) as Penelope Cruz (Vicky Cristina Barcelona) has long been thought the front runner with Viola Davis (Doubt) the runner-up. Hell, Marisa Tomei, Taraji P. Henson and Amy Adams got more recognition than Winslet did until last week and now look at her… Does this mean she will be looking Oscar in the face?
Based on the number you see above I would say her chances don’t look too good and personally I still think Davis and Cruz are ahead of her in this category in the Academy’s eyes. However, one thing that has been accomplished so far is she is now in line for a nomination, which was iffy until this past week.
This is where we find the helpful addition of what amounts to ten nominees per category and two chances for Oscar to pick a winner out of the Golden Globe crop thanks to the HFPA’s Drama and Musical/Comedy distinctions. I am always surprised this isn’t a 100% match, but that’s the great thing about movies… not everyone has the same opinion.
Based on last night’s ceremonies we have two names to consider for Best Actor: Colin Farrell (In Bruges) and Mickey Rourke (The Wrestler). I can tell you right now Farrell will not be winning the Oscar, nor do I believe he will be nominated, which leaves Mickey. Mickey is battling with Sean Penn (Milk) first and foremost and I personally believe Clint Eastwood is about to push hard with folks like DiCaprio, Langella, Pitt and Jenkins hot their heels. I still think Penn is a slight favorite, and the 62% win ratio from Globe to Oscar doesn’t have me convinced.
Moving to the ladies we have a VERY intriguing race going on as Kate Winslet won for Revolutionary Road and Sally Hawkins won for Happy-Go-Lucky. I have long had Winslet as #3 behind Meryl Streep (Doubt) and Anne Hathaway (Rachel Getting Married), but now I stare at a 79.1% Globe to Oscar win ratio and I have to start wondering:
The last two years have been a 100% match with Helen Mirren and Forest Whitaker winning in 2007 and Daniel Day-Lewis and Marion Cotillard winning in 2008. Oh baby what a race!
Danny Boyle vs. David Fincher, take your pick because that’s what we are down to and Danny Boyle comes with a 66.6% Globe to Oscar win percentage in his favor. Before last year the Oscars had matched the Globes for four straight years, is it time to start a new streak?
Below are a list of the instances in the last 24 years where the winners didn’t match up:
- The Globe went to Julian Schnabel (The Diving Bell and the Butterfly) and Joel and Ethan Coen (No Country for Old Men) took home the Oscar in 2008.
- The Globe went to Martin Scorsese (Gangs of New York) and Roman Polanski (The Pianist) took home the Oscar in 2003.
- The Globe went to Robert Altman (Gosford Park) and Ron Howard (A Beautiful Mind) took home the Oscar in 2002.
- The Globe went to Ang Lee (Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon) and Steven Soderbergh (Traffic) took home the Oscar in 2000.
- The Globe went to Milos Forman (The People vs. Larry Flynt) and Anthony Minghella (The English Patient) took home the Oscar in 1997.
- The Globe went to Oliver Stone (JFK) and Jonathan Demme (Silence of the Lambs) took home the Oscar in 1992.
- The Globe went to Clint Eastwood (Bird) and Barry Levinson (Rain Man) took home the Oscar in 1989.
- The Globe went to John Huston (Prizzi’s Honor) and Sydney Pollack (Out of Africa) took home the Oscar in 1986.
A 70.8% Globe to Oscar win percentage is pretty good odds for Slumdog Millionaire as I think we can all agree Vicky Cristina Barcelona won’t be winning any Oscars. While I personally think Benjamin Button is more of an Academy type film it is beginning to look like 2009 will finally be the year the “little guy” goes all the way after Little Miss Sunshine and Juno paved the way.
So there you have it folks, the nominations for the 81st Academy Awards® will be announced on Thursday, January 22, 2009, at 5:30 a.m. PT with the big show taking place on Sunday, February 22, 2009. RopeofSilicon will once again be live and updating with a live diary and winners as they happen and if you weren’t with us last night you can check out the 2008 Golden Globe winners here, my live blog of the event here and my latest Oscar predictions here.
Oh yeah, and if you are at a loss for the movies that will be nominated or were featured at the Golden Globes last night we have you covered there with RopeofSilicon’s exclusive The Contenders section. Enjoy!
