Jurassic World will certainly win, that’s not in question, the only intrigue is how high you want to go. Fandango released the news that it was outselling Transformers: Age of Extinction, which opened at $100 million flat.
Estimates around the web range from $110 million to $140 million, but I’m sticking on the lower end of that spectrum and predicting $111 million. It’s not enough for the June record of $116 million from Man of Steel, but it would serve as the third highest opening of the year behind Avengers: Age of Ultron ($191.2m) and Furious 7 ($147.1m). Anyone up for the risk of predicting it’ll top Vin Diesel and his crew?
Next up, Spy won’t face a terrible frontload because it wasn’t meant for teens or franchise fans and it didn’t exactly blow the doors off last weekend. I’ve put it at $17 million, a drop in the 40s. I watched The Heat again last night and realized Melissa McCarthy is at her best when she’s allowed to be as mean and as crude as possible. Or maybe just honest and frank? Regardless, she’s a comedic treasure.
I’m not going to pick all the new releases from last weekend, because Entourage was a boring financial story. So let’s look at San Andreas instead. I’m giving it $12.5 million. With a $110 million production budget and the fact it will pass $300 million this weekend worldwide, it’s looking at a tidy little profit as Dwayne Johnson continues to build his status in Hollywood.
Lastly, Insidious: Chapter 3. The most efficient title on the board, $8.4 million is my prediction, mostly because our horror crowd remains consistent in their first-weekend loyalty. There aren’t enough fans to support it for the sophomore weekend, but that’s still more than enough to make a tidy little profit on a $10 million budget.
Now it’s your turn, predictions away!
SIDE NOTE: Some of the theater numbers below are estimates. We’ll have the actual counts in Sunday’s wrap-up article.