Focus is your clear box office winner this weekend, it’s getting more advertising than a mattress sale and it has a recognizable lead. Is it a good movie? No, it’s not, though that 66 percent on RottenTomatoes means some folks might disagree. The issue is there won’t be all that much money to go around this weekend, meaning $24.6 million will easily do the trick, as it’s against a bunch of tomato cans.
The Lazarus Effect looks like a throwaway winter horror, but even those have their fans. I’ve put it at $10.5 million, it’s not getting all that many theaters and I haven’t seen much in the way of a marketing campaign. Thankfully, it couldn’t have cost much.
Before we talk about the Kingsman: The Secret Service I should mention that an interesting story I won’t be covering is how Birdman will do this weekend. Usually a post-Oscar win means some dollars, but with Fox Searchlight already ushering this one onto DVD and Blu-ray there isn’t much to talk about in terms of box office possibilities. Now, back to Kingsman, the “B+” Cinemascore isn’t a nightmare given how atypical an “action” film this was, and so I don’t expect the bleed to be disastrous. Last week was just over 49 percent, so I’m saying 45 percent here, taking it down to $10 million
Lastly, of course, Fifty Shades of Grey, for the final time. The drop last weekend was waaaaay more than I thought it’d be, so we’ve got to knock it another huge percentage using our old friend probability. $8.9 million is my prediction, a 60 percent fall. Still, $414 million worldwide means they don’t need another dollar to come in to feel just as pleased as punch. Maybe the next one will be in 3-D?
A slow weekend, but it’s time, get your predictions on!
SIDE NOTE: Some of the theater numbers below are estimates. We’ll have the actual counts in Sunday’s wrap-up article.
