In what is now a new and continuing tradition, the Golden Globe Awards have been revealed ahead of the Oscar nominations, which will be made public this Thursday. Of course, voting for the Oscar nominations was closed before the awards were revealed so don’t think last night’s wins will have any effect on the nominees. But this isn’t an article designed to look at nominations, though we’ll certainly get into a little of that. Instead we’re looking at what chance last night’s Globe winners have at winning the Oscar based on the recent Globe vs. Oscar history.
This post serves as my ninth installment of my “Globes vs. Oscars” column (2005, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014) and we’ll take a look at the past 30 years of Golden Globe winner history compared to the Oscars and see where last night’s winners may gain an edge and where they most likely won’t and we’ll begin with the lead acting categories.
Best Lead Actor and Actress
Actor: 20 of the last 30 Globe winners won the Oscar
Actress: 24 of the last 30 Globe winners won the Oscar
One guess as to who won Best Actress (Musical/Comedy) last year and then went on to lose at the Oscars… Time’s up, that would be Amy Adams for American Hustle and it looks as if the tradition may continue only this year Adams may not even be nominated for her work in Big Eyes as she’ll be battling for that fifth and final slot with Jennifer Aniston (Cake).
Of course, last year was the exact same scenario as I wrote in the 2014 edition of this very same article, “As of right now I don’t have Adams predicted to get a nomination for Best Actress at the Oscars.” Adams did, however, receive a nomination as it was Emma Thompson (Saving Mr. Banks) that ended up on the outside looking in. This, ladies and gentleman, is the only drama the Best Actress category will have this year as it will be Globe Best Actress (Drama) winner, Julianne Moore (Still Alice), walking home with the Oscars.
On the men’s side of things people will probably be propping up Eddie Redmayne (The Theory of Everything) a little more after his win last night, but Michael Keaton (Birdman) not only won, but he cried on stage people. He cried! If the precursor awards are an audition for the Oscars then that, folks, is how you nail it.
Best Supporting Actor and Actress
Supporting Actor: 19 of the last 30 Globe winners won the Oscar
Supporting Actress: 16 of the last 30 Globe winners won the Oscar
There was a lot of love for American Hustle from the HFPA last year as Jennifer Lawrence beat Lupita Nyong’o (12 Years a Slave) for Best Supporting Actress, but I’m not expecting the same kind of upset at the Oscars this year. I full expect Patricia Arquette (Boyhood) to give another moving speech and I expect the same from the Supporting Actor category as both Arquette and J.K. Simmons (Whiplash) had better brush up their acceptance skills… there will be a lot of thank yous to be said this year.
18 of the last 30 Globe winners won the Oscar
Until last year’s win for Alfonso Cuaron (Gravity) at both the Globes and the Oscars, the previous four years had seen a different winner take home the two separate awards as the Best Director category has never been a particularly good predictor for the Oscars. So what does that say for Richard Linklater‘s chances after winning for Boyhood last night? Well, it says he has about a 60% chance of winning based on the last 30 years of Golden Globe Awards.
Personally, I will likely keep Linklater at the top of my list in this category up until the Oscars on February 22 unless something crazy were to happen at the Critics Choice Awards this Thursday or if the Directors Guild goes in a direction I don’t entirely expect. Which is to say, it might still be interesting, but I’m going with the obvious for right now.
Just below I’ve listed the recent discrepancies between the Globes and Oscars for this category.
21 of the last 30 Globe winners won the Oscar
As exciting as the win for The Grand Budapest Hotel was last night for Best Picture (Comedy/Musical), I still don’t give it much of a shot over Boyhood when it comes to winning, but perhaps Budapest has now cemented itself as the strong #2 contender over the likes of The Imitation Game, which went home empty handed last night. Or perhaps it’s The Theory of Everything that’s a much stronger contender than Imitation Game, what with its win for Eddie Redmayne and all. Personally I think it’s Boyhood‘s to lose as it has now won with the New York and Los Angeles critics, the Golden Globes and most likely the Critics Choice Awards this Thursday.
And so that does it, but please note, not only were the Oscar nominees voted on before last night’s Golden Globe winners were announced, the HFPA and Academy are two dramatically different organizations. However, it would be silly to think last night’s wins won’t have an effect (however slight) on the Oscar race, but as you can see from the numbers above, the effects can vary.
The 2015 Oscar nominations will be announced this Thursday, January 15 and the awards will be held on Sunday, February 22. Just as we did last night for the Golden Globes, we will be live blogging and announcing the winners as they happen.
In addition to that, I will continue to update my Oscar predictions and you can always find those here. I am also tracking all the major precursor winners in my Oscar Overture and be sure to keep up-to-date with what is coming up next with my Awards Calendar, which tells us the next major awards to be handed out are the Critics’ Choice Movie Awards this Thursday, January 15, followed by the Screen Actors Guild Awards this coming Sunday, January 25, the latter of which we’ll be live-blogging, so be sure and join us then.