Box Office Predictions: ‘If I Stay’ Predicted #1 Over ‘As Above, So Below’ and ‘November Man’


Weekend Box-Office Predictions for The November Man

If I StayIf I Stay might win. Of course, you could say that about five or six films this weekend, it’s not going to take much. Last year, over the three-day weekend, it only took $15.8 million (One Direction: This is Us). This year it will take even less, though keep in mind we’re not predicting Monday around here.

If you’re looking at your spreadsheet at home, yes, this is indeed a five percent drop I’m predicting for If I Stay from last weekend, which is basically unheard of, but for context know that four films over last Labor Day Weekend pulled off the single-digit feat. The Chloe Grace Moretz starrer was also made for a slim $11 million, meaning my $14.9 million call is icing on the teenage girl cake. Not many films lose their first weekend and then come back to claim the crown, but the conditions are just right this weekend.

I really wish I knew the Wednesday total for The November Man, but it hasn’t been released on Box Office Mojo yet. My gut instinct is that no one will see it. An action movie with ’80s star Pierce Brosnan? Exactly who is lining up for that? $8.3 million is my take, though admittedly a more mature title could fare well on a weekend when adults take in cinema.

The thriller-scary-maybe-not-horror film As Above, So Below is our next topic for consideration. I haven’t seen even the slightest bit of marketing on this, though maybe watching The Disney Channel is precluding my intake of said marketing. $7.5 million is below tracking, but the tracking last weekend (and the two weekends prior to that) was absolute garbage. We gotta strike out on our own!

There’s not really a fourth title to consider, but we’re one weekend away from the NFL season, so why not take on When the Game Stands Tall for the sake of all the fans out there. Clearly, it won’t dip much. Heck, even I might go and see it, so if you’d like to carpool drop me an email. As for the financial prospects, it won’t have any international legs, but then again it only cost $15 million to make and they’ve timed it well. It’s facing a group of tomato cans just like the rest of these late-August releases that are playing small ball. But hey, if you’re getting the base hits, I understand. $7.6 million is my prediction, and I’d guess at least three people are going to hit this number right on the head.

The leaves are turning and your predictions are burning, get them in now!

Current Record: 39-81-5 against the wisdom of the crowds.

Major Theater Chain (MTC) Tracking

  • As Above, So Below: $9 million
  • The November Man: $9 million

SIDE NOTE: Some of the theater numbers below are estimates. We’ll have the actual counts in Sunday’s wrap-up article.