Box Office Predictions: ‘The Expendables 3’ Attempts to Hold Off the ‘Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles’


Weekend Box-Office Predictions for The Expendables 3

Teenage Mutant Ninja TurtlesTeenage Mutant Ninja Turtles was the (slightly) surprising winner last week, with the actual shocker being how much it won by. Can it repeat? Just looking at it leads one to think, “Eh, super frontloaded”, which should be accurate. I’m calling for a 57 percent dip, but even that’s not enough to knock it down to the silver medal. Why? Because it’s facing a fading giant. Turtles would have to fall over 60 percent and have our next contender exceed tracking in a big way to lose the crown. I can’t see history repeating itself this weekend.

For evidence, look no further than The Expendables 3 tracking poorly. According to the numbers, this would indicate a continual downward spiral (domestically). These films, chocked full of action “stars”, are now meant mostly for the international audiences. Here in the U.S. I think demand has been slightly underestimated, but it’s tough to put it above the flat $27 million I’m calling for. Even that’s above tracking, and no one seems terribly excited about the franchise as a whole. I’m planning on the “potential” finale bounce, but it’s easy to think it could open far lower.

Let’s Be Cops has been extremely well marketed given it seems to be the very definition of a one-note joke. I still need to see the film, but that 16 percent it’s rocking on RottenTomatoes doesn’t spell good things, especially after this weekend. It’s gonna be drop central! However, this time around my call is $25 million, again above tracking. I’m almost daring you to go under, aren’t I?

Finally, let’s take a look at The Giver. Clearly, I just looked at The Host for this one, although this ill-conceived project looks to have even more star power. How did they get Meryl Streep into this? And why exactly did they even do that, given the target audience probably doesn’t give a hoot about Academy cred? The sci-fi concept seems fairly cool, which is even more reason to surmise they’ve messed it up. In the dystopian YA cinematic universe there’s The Hunger Games … and everyone else. My prediction is $15.4 million. Yep, I’m going under on this little title.

That’s all from party central, get your predictions in early and often!

Current Record: 36-76-5 against the wisdom of the crowds.

Major Theater Chain (MTC) Tracking

  • The Expendables 3: $23 million
  • Let’s Be Cops: $21 million
  • The Giver: $17 million

SIDE NOTE: Some of the theater numbers below are estimates. We’ll have the actual counts in Sunday’s wrap-up article.