How to Train Your Dragon 2 will certainly best that $43.7 million opening weekend its predecessor put up in March of 2010. How can we tell? Because it also made a whopping $158 million on home video. That’s plenty of sequel bump equity, the world has had four years to lick the proverbial chops on this title.
The tracking suggests just under $70 million, which makes my $71.8 million only a little bullish. The Lego Movie almost pulled that off in early February, and there hasn’t been a family contender since. But now families are ready! The kids are out of school, and have had just enough time to annoy their parents, so everyone involved is willing to fork over the $75 or so this will cost to take two kids to see this one in Imax / 3D with popcorn and all the fixin’s. Dragon 2 will hit like a hurricane, no doubt, but it’s still likely to miss out on at least one crown this weekend – the dollars per theater crown. That honor will go to …
The second huge sequel on the board, 22 Jump Street, is also extremely well positioned to rake it in. If Neighbors can pull in $140 million domestically then what can a sequel with an established comic duo accomplish? A $58.3 million weekend is what! I could even see this winning the weekend, but picking a R-rated comedy against a family film isn’t a prescription for success. The marketing has been on point here too, and the weekend history suggests we’re in for a $200 million top twelve (cume).
The Fault in Our Stars should drop 60 percent, or maybe even more, all the way down to $19.2 million. It’s a pretty easy call given the (bonkers) $25 per ticket opening day they executed (for a $26 million Friday). You could probably even go lower and feel confident. There’s no bottom here, though the film was well received.
Finally, our poor little ugly duckling, Edge of Tomorrow. They are trying a different set of trailers now, making it look pure action (and no sci-fi or love), but it’s probably too late. The B+ CinemaScore also indicates that people weren’t in love with it. Remember, on our normal CinemaScore curve anything below an A pretty much means bas things for a holdover number. Still, I can only dip it 52 percent because it started so low, bringing it in at a $13.8 million weekend.
Your turn, get in there and mix it up!
Current Record: 24-62-3 against the wisdom of the crowds
Major Theater Chain (MTC) Tracking
- How to Train Your Dragon 2: $68 million
- 22 Jump Street: $57.2 million
SIDE NOTE: Some of the theater numbers below are estimates. We’ll have the actual counts in Sunday’s wrap-up article.
