Maleficent is your clear weekend winner, though there is some room for disappointment as the weekend after Memorial Day tends to flatline. Everyone is already filled up on movies! So what’s the appropriate comparison for Maleficent? The title I’m targeting is Snow White and the Huntsman. That one had an early June release, a recognizable female star in the lead role, plus a “rotten” rating on RT. I know Brad was hoping for an Alice in Wonderland level of box office earnings, but it’s not looking too good, as this looks to be boredom upon arrival. $60.8 million is my prediction, or slightly under tracking.
Which brings us nicely to the other new release of the weekend, A Million Ways to Die in the West. Another film that’s just not up to snuff. Has the weekend after Memorial Day become a sneaky summer dumping ground?
A Milion Ways will have nowhere near the reach of Ted, and it feels like much more of a vanity project than anything else. There will be some curiosity around the latest Seth MacFarlane comedy, but the unlucky early adopters will spread the word quickly, and by Sunday this one will be running on fumes. $31 million is my middling call, and you’ve got yourself a coin flip on the over/under.
We’ll get into holdover numbers next, starting with the awkwardly named X-Men: Days of Future Past. I predict a withering 60 percent drop, and my reasons are twofold. First off, there’s that aforementioned Memorial Day dip. Then there’s the Captain America: Winter Soldier 2014 superhero dip precedence, that one was nearly 57 percent, and that was coming off the exact same ‘A’ CinemaScore X-Men: Days of Future Past earned. I’ve got it falling all the way down to $36.3 million.
Finally, a movie that’s already bathed in failure, Blended. There’s really only one reason it won’t drop huge, and that’s because it started so low to begin with. Hard to be frontloaded if no one sees your film in the first place. $7.6 million is the sad prediction here, it’s limbo time with this one.
Your turn, get it done!
Current Record: 20-59-2 against the wisdom of the crowds
Major Theater Chain (MTC) Tracking
- Maleficent: $64 million
- A Million Days to Die in the West: $31.5 million
SIDE NOTE: Some of the theater numbers below are estimates. We’ll have the actual counts in Sunday’s wrap-up article.
