Godzilla looks poised to take the weekend crown by around a kabillion dollars (scientific estimate) so the only real intrigue is just how high it will soar. Which direction am I going? Under tracking!
Here’s my rationale: all the way back in 1998 the film opened at $44 million. Once you adjust for inflation, around 40 percent (which is scary enough) you get a number around $61 million. What’s changed between then and now? Roland Emmerich wasn’t exactly a shlub coming off of Independence Day, and I seem to recall that movie “feeling” like it would be a bigger deal. Domestically though, do people care about Godzilla? The two things working for the film are 1) an early summer release date and 2) it’s not a superhero film, so it’s differentiated in the market. That second factor screams, “Pacific Rim“! – that was a film that opened under $40 million. So while I’m still bumping it a bit due to huge marketing efforts, and I love the international multiplier, I’m not so bullish domestically. My call is $67.3 million. I look forward to potentially beating y’all if you buy into the hype.
All of the above is still better news than Million Dollar Arm has coming. The words “dead on arrival” feel apt, though thankfully the budget is only $35 million. So they still have a chance to make a little noise. But only a little, I like a little under tracking here as well at $12 million flat.
How do we all feel about Neighbors? I don’t see a massive drop, because I don’t think there could have been all that much frontloading. I foresee a 45 percent dip, or just slightly worse than Ted, bringing it home at $27 million for the weekend.
There’s very little to talk about in the 4th slot, so let’s just trot out The Amazing Spider-Man 2 one last time. The drop was an appropriately massive 61 percent last weekend, and I like that trend to continue with a 58 percent dip. This is the new marketplace, build the marketing machine for the first weekend, count on the international proceeds, and then get out of theaters on and to home video. Do that a couple of times a year and you’ve got yourself a studio, it’s not more complicated than that. $14.9 million could actually end up high, but it’s where I’m going.
How say you? Get your predictions in, and then join me in hitting refresh all of Saturday morning right here on RopeofSilicon.com.
Current Record: 16-55-2 against the wisdom of the crowds
Major Theater Chain (MTC) Tracking
- Godzilla: $71.7 million
- Million Dollar Arm: $13.3 million
SIDE NOTE: Some of the theater numbers below are estimates. We’ll have the actual counts in Sunday’s wrap-up article.
