This weekend’s winner could come from any one of three titles, but I’m going to go with The Mortal Instruments: City of Bones as the likely conquerer, even though it’s been very poorly received. My logic is relatively simple: the film is rated PG-13, it has the most theaters of any new release, and there’s some precedent for a non-sequel tween film to make this sort of money.
I leaned heavily upon I am Number Four as a comparable, because it was supposed to be the start of a series, and yet it wasn’t quite Twilight, The Hunger Games, or Harry Potter in terms of book buzz. I am Number Four opened at $19.5 million back in February of 2011, I’m factoring in a $2 million dollar disparity because The Mortal Instruments is terrible, whereas I am Number Four was good, and the first place I heard a song from the (then) new Adele album.
August is theoretically a little stronger of a box office month than February, but the back to school angle can cut individual weekends down, for instance last year the top twelve didn’t even crack $90 million cume. Yep, yep, it’s going to be a limbo weekend around the predictions, how low can you go? I’m going with $17.5 million for the City of Bones even though tracking is much lower, but more on that in a sec.
Up next is You’re Next. This one sits at a staggering 90 percent on RottenTomatoes, and that’s with 40 reviews in, meaning the movie should actually be enjoyable for ticket buyers, allowing it to gain strength as the weekend plays out. I can’t get past the 600 theater disparity, the R-rating, or the lack of precedent, so I’ve got it finishing at $15 million. But I certainly understand the people out there who want to go higher with their call, just realize the money might not be there for any of the titles this weekend.
Which brings us nicely to The World’s End. As much as I love the Edgar Wright films, they don’t open well, in fact this $7.3 million call is kind compared to how Hot Fuzz and Shaun of the Dead performed. Not enough theaters, another R, and the sad fact that these are basically niche films indicates a smallish opening, though I’d love to be wrong. I’m in the bag for Frost, Pegg, and Wright – I just don’t think more than a million other people are.
Finally, a Woody Allen title picking up some theaters, Blue Jasmine. This film has already made $10 million in theaters, but this is the first weekend it will have more than 229 of them, all the way up to 1,200. I thought To Rome with Love was a relevant title as to how Allen’s modern films perform once they gain theaters, though I goosed the number somewhat because Blue Jasmine has already outperformed To Rome with Love (which is why it’s getting more theaters than that one ever did). My number for this weekend is $6.6 million.
One final note on tracking: the two major services (MTC and RS) have been all over the board this summer, and they are again this weekend, so please take the figures below with a giant grain of salt.
Current Record: 10-25-1 against the wisdom of crowds.
Major Theater Chain (MTC) Tracking
- Mortal Instruments: City of Bones: $11.0 million
- You’re Next: $8.5 million
- The World’s End: $8.0 million
- Blue Jasmine: $6.0 million
Your turn! No one has been able to break away from the pack just yet, but a couple of good early predictions give everyone a solid chance this weekend because of the limited outcomes available.
SIDE NOTE: Some of the theater numbers below are estimates. We’ll have the actual counts in Sunday’s wrap-up article.
