Monsters University is the heavy favorite to take an extremely busy weekend, based simply on precedent and demographic reach. Luckily, there are a few other compelling stories to discuss as well, more on those in a moment.
When you look at Monsters University, the easiest thing to do is take 2001’s Monsters, Inc. opening number of $19,331 per theater and adjust for inflation (equaling $25,000 per). But what of the sequel bump? And what of the pent-up demand for a children’s film? The last true family movie to take a weekend was The Croods, all the way back in March. Still, I will defer slightly to the tracking, which is coming in lower, pegging it at $24,000 per theater. This aligns nicely with the phenomenon which shows less people are buying tickets now than in 2001.
If you want to discuss the most volatile prediction of the weekend, look no further than World War Z. First off, for all the production issues that were breathlessly reported throughout, Paramount has listed the production budget at $190 million, or a full $35 million less than Man of Steel. Now, you and I both know that reported production budgets are full of voodoo and half-truths — studios continue to operate under Mafia accounting rules — but it’s interesting to note nonetheless.
The oddities continue for this Brad Pitt actioner when you look at the two major tracking services. We generally follow Major Theater Chain tracking around these parts, they are usually more accurate, but the last two weeks they’ve been waaaaaay off. For this week? They’ve got World War Z at $58 million, but ReelSource tracking indicates a number in the low $30 million range. Huh? Those are almost 100 percent different calls, which means someone is likely to be very wrong this weekend.
My guess is MTC gets back on track, if only because Paramount has marketed the living daylights out of this movie, and I’m predicting $63 million for WWZ. The CinemaScore will be another fascinating aspect, overall it’s a delightful weekend for us box office watchers.
Man of Steel should drop something in the range of 44 percent, in line with the 2002 version of Spider-Man, which also opened at a number very close to Man of Steel ($114 million vs. $116 million, not adjusted). The wildcard? Why of course it’s World War Z, another PG-13 entrant. My feel is that they’re too different to truly compete, but I’m not 100 percent certain there.
Our limited release (under 1,000 theaters) contest title is Sofia Coppola‘s The Bling Ring. Ignore that $214,000 per theater number from last weekend, it’s a clear case of enforced scarcity. You know the film I like for a comp? Marie Antoinette, another Coppola film drenched in decadence, it opened at $6,241 per theater back in 2006, I’ve goosed the number up a little to reflect audience’s preference for films set in modern day and am predicting $4.6 million this weekend from something around 650 theaters.
How say you? We’ve officially launched the RopeofSilicon Box Office Challenge, which you can see directly below, and I’ll admit I love this feature because it finally allows everyone to compete for recognized box office glory.
Predictions away, get in the game and get your numbers in!
Current Streak: One weekend in a row.
Chances of Streak Being Broken: Ten percent.
Reason: I’m confident Monsters University will take the weekend.
Major Theater Chain (MTC) Tracking
Monsters University: $82 million
World War Z: $58 million
SIDE NOTE: Some of the theater numbers below are estimates. We’ll have the actual counts in Sunday’s wrap-up article.
