Fast & Furious 6 dominated last weekend, and it looks well positioned to take home another crown, something no previous entry in the Fast franchise has pulled off. It’s remarkable to see how this series has grown, from a humble $207 million on a $38 millon production budget back in 2001, all the way to the towering sixth edition, looking certain to hit $650 million worldwide. After a few early missteps, a masterful job from Universal here and I see another $40.9 million for Fast 6 this weekend.
As for the rest of this crop, there’s not a whole lot of “there” there. The new releases each have a crippling deficiency, though not the same one. After Earth is putrid, to the point where Brad and I both threw an “F” at it, which is going to destroy all momentum after Friday evening. I can’t go any higher than $28.4 million for opening weekend and the CinemaScore here can’t come in above a B- or else we’ve truly lost the American public.
The international prospects are brighter, it’s a Will Smith movie with monsters, so it could very easily put up $300 million overseas, while still not breaking triple digits stateside. Off of that $130 million production budget, they are going to need every foreign dollar they can scrounge up, there’s much more downside than upside for this film.
The other wide new release, Now You See Me, also has issues. A terrible title, not part of a franchise, and difficult to market. All of the names here are known — Jesse Eisenberg, Mark Ruffalo, Woody Harrelson — but not draws. I found it to be a breezy little film, but I don’t know that people are out there just waiting to buy tickets on the opening weekend, and there are so many options in this crowded field.
Now You See Me has a reported budget of $70 million, which is also problematic given a likely opening around $20 million, which translates to something around a $55 million total domestically, and this one shouldn’t have much in the way of overseas appeal. It looks as though our pals over at Lionsgate/Summit are going to take a little haircut on this bad boy.
How say you? Dare you predict another film in the top spot?
Current Streak: Sixteen weekends in a row (longest ever!).
Chances of Streak Being Broken: 10 percent.
Reason: If After Earth was good, maybe, but it’s not, and the Sci-fi market is already sated.
Major Theater Chain (MTC) Tracking
After Earth: $32 million
Now You See Me: $19 million
SIDE NOTE: Some of the theater numbers below are estimates. We’ll have the actual counts in Sunday’s wrap-up article.
