Weekend Box-Office: ‘Bourne Legacy’ On Top, ‘Campaign’ In Second and ‘Dark Knight Rises’ Finishes Third
By
Brad Brevet
August isn’t starting off delivering megahits, but some generally acceptable results can be found if you squint as The Bourne Legacy didn’t blow the doors off, The Campaign overperformed based on expectations and Hope Springs managed to wrangle in its target audience. Let’s take a closer look at each and see what we find.
Laremy predicted the #1 movie correctly 9 Weeks In A Row
The Bourne Identity opened with $27.1 million in 2002 when it was essentially an unknown quantity. In 2004 The Bourne Supremacy opened to $52.5 million and in 2007 the franchise was well-established and The Bourne Ultimatum opened with $69.2 million and made $227 million. Five years later Tony Gilroy and Universal have tried to start things over again with a new star in The Bourne Legacy and a $125 million budget and the audience seems a little wary.
With $40.3 million, Legacy settles in somewhere in the middle and a “B” Cinemascore says those in attendance where generally accepting of the film, but not over the moon. I see this one ending domestically somewhere in the $120 million range and if we’re to see a sequel it will depend on the rest of the world. Personally, I hope there’s a sequel, I’d love to see more and see them break free of doing the same thing all over again… again.
On the prediction side of things, Laremy overshot the target, while Austin G. and Winchester share this week’s crown both coming in only $500,000 off but in different directions with $39.8 million and $41.3 million predicted respectively. Good work.
Weekend: $40.2 million RottenTomatoes Score:53% Laremy’s rank: Laremy picked it to finish #1 and his prediction of $48.7 million was $8.5m off for a percentage error of 21.14%.
The Campaign settled down after a solid $10.3 million Friday, which had me thinking it might be able to muster up $30 million for the weekend, but it falls just shy with $27.4 million, which tells me that “B-” Cinemascore isn’t doing much for its word of mouth.
On the prediction side of things, Antonio A came closest with a $27 million prediction.
Weekend: $27.4 million / RottenTomatoes:72% Laremy’s rank: Laremy picked it to finish #2 with $24 million, which is $3.4m off for a 12.41% error.
With a 45% drop, another $19.5 million added to the coffers, The Dark Knight Rises now has its second weekend with a sub-50% drop and has now made over $390 million and moved into the 15th spot all-time at the domestic box-office, ahead of Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows – Part 2.
Weekend: $19.5 million (-45.4% drop) / Cume: $390.1 million / RottenTomatoes:87% Laremy’s rank: Laremy picked it to finish #3 with $17.1 million, which is $2.4m off for a 12.31% error.
After opening on Wednesday, Hope Springs lost a little juice heading into the weekend as some had already seen it, but it held strong generating $15.6 million bringing its five-day total to $20.1 million. It, however, only managed a “B” Cinemascore from audiences, which may make it hard to carry on too long at the box-office, but with Meryl Streep in the lead I’m sure there is still a little money to be made.
Weekend: $15.6 million / Cume: $20.1 million / RottenTomatoes:74% Laremy’s rank: Laremy picked it to finish #4 with $11.8 million, which is $3.8m off for a 24.36% error.
Oh, Sony can’t be too happy about this, their tough guy blockbuster loses to a Wimpy Kid as Fox’s family comedy edged out Total Recall in their second weekends. Ouch.
Weekend: $8.2 million (-43.8% drop) / Cume: $30.5 million / RottenTomatoes:49% Laremy’s rank: Laremy picked it to finish #6 with $6.9 million, which is $1.3m off for a 15.85% error.
It managed to avoid a 70% drop, but it’s not like 68% is much better as Sony’s Total Recall remake plummeted to $8.1 million after an already weak $25.5 million opening. After a reported budget of $125 million this one is going to be lucky to cross $70 million domestically as it really hopes for some juice overseas.
Weekend: $8.1 million (-68.2% drop) / Cume: $44.1 million / RottenTomatoes:31% Laremy’s rank: Laremy picked it to finish #5 with $11.7 million, which is $3.6m off for a 44.44% error.
Over $740 million worldwide and only $144 million of that comes from the domestic box-office. It’s fascinating how much of a global marketplace film has become, but I wonder, has the ability to make money across the globe watered down our films as Hollywood attempts to appease the widest audience?
Weekend: $6.7 million (-22.1% drop) / Cume: $144 million / RottenTomatoes:39% Laremy’s rank: Laremy picked it to finish #7 with $4.9 million, which is $1.8m off for a 26.87% error.
This film is an absolute monster and, unlike Ice Age, the majority of its money has come from the States with only around $90 million coming from overseas. But with a $50 million budget, this thing is looking at a 6-times multiplier. Not too shabby for a film about a foul-mouthed teddy bear.
Weekend: $3.2 million (-42.9% drop) / Cume: $209.9 million / RottenTomatoes:69% Laremy’s rank: Laremy picked it to finish #10 with $2.9 million, which is $0.3m off for a 9.38% error.
Definitely not on par performance-wise with previous installments, but this franchise has been declining domestically since the first one. This installment, however, would appear to be the first one even overseas audiences have rejected.
Weekend: $2.8 million (-52.5% drop) / Cume: $30.1 million / RottenTomatoes:42% Laremy’s rank: Laremy picked it to finish #8 with $3.3 million, which is $0.5m off for a 17.86% error.
It’s a battle for the tenth slot as apparently both The Watch and The Amazing Spider-Man both made an estimated $2.2 million. My set up here on this site doesn’t allow for ties so we’ll have to wait until actuals to see who’s the real winner.
Weekend: $2.2 million (-66.2% drop) / Cume: $31.3 million / RottenTomatoes:16% Laremy’s rank: Not Ranked
Elsewhere, opening in limited theaters, Laremy had Nitro Circus in his top ten, but the extreme 3D feature only managed $1.1 million from 800 theaters for a meager $1,491 per theater average. That’s bad. On the bright side of the limited spectrum, Spike Lee’s Red Hook Summer ventured onto four screens in New York City and grossed an estimated $42,100, for a per-screen average of $10,525.
Looking forward to next week you have a whole slew of films to choose from starting with The Odd Life of Timothy Green on Wednesday and moving to Friday’s releases which include The Expendables 2, ParaNorman and Sparkle as your wide releases with Cosmopolis, The Awakening, Why Stop Now and Compliance hitting limited theaters. Have any predictions you’d like to share? What will be #1 next weekend? 2010’s The Expendables brought in $34 million, do you see the sequel topping that result?
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