Box-Office Predictions: 'Five-Year Engagement' Hopes to Walk Aisle to #1

Last weekend was a bit of a disaster as Think Like a Man roared ahead of the pack while playing in a mere 2,015 theaters. Very impressive. Can it repeat? Nope. But let’s break it down anyway!

Laremy predicted the #1 movie correctly 0 Weeks In A Row

The Five-Year Engagement

I think we’re nearing the point, with both Jason Segel and Emily Blunt, where the market is “comfy” with them. You know what you’re going to get. Now, does that mean Jason Segel can do a horror, or that Emily Blunt could carry a biopic all by her lonesome? No, of course not. But for this genre, and this weekend, the two are perfectly suited to dominate the marketplace.

Do we worry about the R-rating? A little bit. But 100+ films rated R have opened stronger than this, so we’re not asking for much. Plus Bad Teacher opened higher than this, though admittedly swapping out Blunt for Diaz will cost the film some dollars. Speaking of Emily, she’s already opened at this level with The Adjustment Bureau, though, again, that also had Matt Damon and emphasized the romance angle rather emphatically.

Overall, the money has to go somewhere, and I can see the top 12 ending anywhere from $100m – $125m. If turnout is lower overall, we can expect a repeat job from …

Prediction: $22.2 million

2. Think Like a Man

$39m on a $12m budget! And we’re only one week into the earnings. This begs the question, why would anyone spend $50m + making a comedy? The most attractive feature of the genre is how economical they can be pulled off, and yet we’ll see a dozen more titles this year that are grossly over-budgeted.

Prediction: $16.5 million

3. The Pirates! Band of Misfits

It’s hard to figure stop-motion because the data set is so limited. Still, there’s a history of $15m+ openings, from Coraline to Wallace and Gromit: The Curse of the Were-Rabbit. Around two million people want to guzzle this film on opening weekend, and it’s already banked internationally.

Prediction: $15.5 million

4. The Raven

It looks a little too dark, but not horrific enough, to pull in a huge number this weekend. It’s caught in-between niches.

Prediction: $13.8 million

5. The Lucky One

I’m only dipping it 52 percent based on comparables … but the wheels could fall off. Wouldn’t be too surprising given the quality.

Prediction: $10.9 million

6. The Hunger Games

$576m worldwide. Couldn’t they have offered someone like Darren Aronofsky $20m to buy some credibility? I’m not sure you want to mess around with a mid-major director on this franchise, and you’re not going to get a “name” for the sequel unless you pay through the nose. But they can afford to pay. So why not go in style?

Prediction: $10.3 million

7. Safe

When the historians look back, this will fall into “lesser Statham”. Doesn’t have enough of a marketing push or demographic reach to contend.

Prediction: $6.8 million

8. The Three Stooges

Will this do anything internationally? I can’t see it.

Prediction: $5.7 million

9. Chimpanzee

The trend is clear on nature docs after Earth Day, they tend to fall about 51 percent.

Prediction: $5.2 million

10. The Cabin in the Woods

I just wish this could have held on until next weekend so we could bathe Joss Whedon in love.