Box-Office Oracle: ‘The Lorax’ is Looking at an Easy Win Over ‘Project X’
By
Laremy Legel
The trend suggests I’ll never again pick the top movie correctly – though luckily I’ve been handed a freebie to turn things around. It’s been 16 weeks since an animation topped the charts (Puss in Boots) which means the family dollar should be nice and hongry. This weekend they’ll be chomping on some Lorax, though I see some give as the weekend progresses. Let’s break it down!
Laremy predicted the #1 movie correctly 0 Weeks In A Row
The tracking is higher but I foresee a slight bleed as word gets out on the overall quality. Still, anything over $10k per theater equates to an easy weekend crown, plus the film will have a decided edge in theater counts. Have I even mentioned the 3-D surcharge? Oh yes, parents will be paying this weekend to be immersed in glorious (pointless) 3-D.
The Wall Street Journal has the production budget listed in the $60m to $70m range, so a $110m domestic number wouldn’t be ideal, because it would then come down to the international multiplier. Are they staring down the barrel of a tidy 1:1 a la Despicable Me? Or will they get punished like the The Cat in the Hat? They are certainly going all out on marketing, you can’t swing a mustache without hitting some promotional tie-in.
Now for the good news: there isn’t another “family” film in the month of March. That means the holdover factor will be there, kudos to Universal.
At least 200,000 tickets will go to The Lorax from teens sneaking into Project X. The production budget is an efficient $12 million, so any sort of legs whatsoever will have this project in the black.
Do you dip it the normal “action” movie rate? Or does the Midwest come out again in force? Trick question, because it doesn’t really matter from here on out, it’s all profit.
Here’s the film that will take a hit thanks to The Lorax. $240 million worldwide on an $80 million production budget renders that “hit” largely inconsequential, they are loving life.
I went on and on about Tyler Perry’s financial prowess last Thursday only to have Act of Valor blow him right out of the water. Still, the trend continues, this is the healthiest top five in a while in terms of production budget vs. potential margins.
Let’s all math this out, the sequel stands at $83 million on a $57 million production budget. The first one was $228 million on $110 million. So they need at least $25 million more worldwide to declare “samesies!”
