Box-Office: ‘Safe House’ and ‘The Vow’ Top Weekend Over Newcomers ‘Ghost Rider’ and ‘This Means War’
By
Brad Brevet
This weekend may be down about 17% from last weekend and none of the new films may have hit the top spot, but we’re still looking at a weekend where the top twelve brought in $14.1 million more than the top twelve in the same frame last year at this time. On top of that, just look at the hold for last weekend’s top films! Pretty good stuff…
Laremy predicted the #1 movie correctly 0 Weeks In A Row
I have to give credit where credit is due, with the first comment in Laremy’s Box-Office Oracle article on Thursday, John-PT predicted Safe House in the top spot with $23.3 million. I thought he was crazy, but he apparently knows a lot more than me. With a B CinemaScore I never would have expected a measly 40% drop, but the film is now up to $78.3 million and I guess Universal should be happy everyone went to see The Vow during the week so Safe House could take the #1 spot this weekend.
On a side note, “chriscarmichael” predicted Safe House in #1 as well and was even a little closer with a $23.5 million prediction, but his prediction came in on Friday morning and I have to yield to the pick that came in on time.
Weekend: $24 million Cummulative Total: $78.3 million RottenTomatoes Score:51% Laremy’s rank: Laremy picked it to finish #4 and his prediction of $17.87 million was $6.13m off for a percentage error of 25.54%.
The Vow will soon become the first $100 million earner of 2012 and could potentially become the three-day weekend #1 should studio predictions be off by enough. Nevertheless, a strong hold from week-to-week for the Channing Tatum and Rachel McAdams romance.
Weekend: $23.6 million (-42.7% drop) / Cume: $85.5 million / RottenTomatoes:28% Laremy’s rank: Laremy picked it to finish #2 with $22.04 million, which is $1.56m off for a 6.61% error.
After Friday I never expected this film to top $20 million, but I guess more people decided to see this mess than I thought would, but a C+ CinemaScore tells me it shouldn’t expect to make much more.
Reader predictions on Thursday saw some people going as high as $47 million and one as low as $7.5 million, but Rach and Dennis weren’t fooled as they nailed it with their $22 million predictions.
Weekend: $22 million / RottenTomatoes:16% Laremy’s rank: Laremy picked it to finish #1 with $28.5 million, which is $6.5m off for a 29.55% error.
People really seem to be in love with last weekend’s offerings, perhaps because there were three films that offered a little something for everyone. As a result, those three films all held over very well and all made over $20 million, which is more than I can say for…
Weekend: $20 million (-26.7% drop) / Cume: $53.2 million / RottenTomatoes:42% Laremy’s rank: Laremy picked it to finish #5 with $17.76 million, which is $2.24m off for a 11.2% error.
I guess the generic trailers, The Vow and a critical drubbing can be credited for the lackluster results for This Means War, which was reportedly made on a $65 million budget, most of which I would assume went to Reese Witherspoon’s pocket. Strangely enough, I would think the draw to this film would be Tom Hardy and Chris Pine, both of which replaced previously attached actors that included Sam Worthington, Bradley Cooper and Seth Rogen.
Looking over read predictions, “maja”, “thefutureofhollywood” and chriscarmichael came closest with a $17 million and $18 million predictions. Everyone else was over $20 million and one prediction was over $30m. That, my friends, is underperforming. Oh well, I still liked the movie.
Weekend: $17.5 million / RottenTomatoes:24% Laremy’s rank: Laremy picked it to finish #3 with $18.2 million, which is $0.7m off for a 4% error.
Does anyone know how much was spent to convert Phantom Menace into 3D? I know the big thing here is that George Lucas and Fox will convert the other Star Wars films into 3D if this pays off and with an additional $20+ million internationally and the prospect of selling these titles on Blu-ray is still there so they’ll obviously continue, but I’m just curious.
Weekend: $7.8 million (-65.2% drop) / Cume: $33.7 million / RottenTomatoes:63% Laremy’s rank: Laremy picked it to finish #6 with $13.08 million, which is $5.28m off for a 67.69% error.
Weekend: $7.5 million (-37.5% drop) / Cume: $50.9 million / RottenTomatoes:84% Laremy’s rank: Laremy picked it to finish #7 with $7.25 million, which is $0.25m off for a 3.33% error.
Over $45 million on a $13 million budget. Another win!
Weekend: $6.6 million (-34.7% drop) / Cume: $45.2 million Laremy’s rank: Laremy picked it to finish #9 with $4.7 million, which is $1.9m off for a 28.79% error.
$54 million worldwide on a $25 million budget, though I have heard Open Road spent quite a bit to market it. Nevertheless, this is still a good result for a film that doesn’t necessarily fit into what general audiences expect and it has still managed to hold over quite well from week to week.
Weekend: $3 million (-40% drop) / Cume: $47.9 million / RottenTomatoes:78% Laremy’s rank: Laremy picked it to finish #10 with $2.3 million, which is $0.7m off for a 23.33% error.
In other news, The Weinstein Co.’s Oscar-nominated documentary Undefeated opened in five theaters and managed to squeak in $30,900, which is too bad because more people need to see this movie and its opening needed to be a bigger story. It’s a fantastic documentary and one you should be sure and see if given the chance.
Next weekend comes four new wide releases in Act of Valor, the Amanda Seyfried-led Gone, Tyler Perry’s Good Deeds and the humorous-looking Wanderlust. Which one will come out on top? I’d like to say it’s an easy pick for Wanderlust, but I can see cases made elsewhere…
Check out our complete Box-Office charts hereand subscribe to our updated Box-Office RSS feed here
