Box-Office Oracle: ‘Underworld Awakening’ Hopes to Put a Bite in ‘Haywire’, ‘Red Tails’ and ‘Extremely Loud’

Weekend Box-Office Predictions Jan. 20 - Jan. 22, 2012
Last weekend taught us all a valuable lesson, namely it’s difficult to win a weekend with a film that’s twenty years old. This weekend presents a franchise winner, an expansion, and two films working their darndest to ensure you’ve heard of them. Let’s break this thing down!
Laremy predicted the #1 movie correctly 1 Week In A Row

Underworld Awakening

$8k per theater feels about right given Underworld: Rise of the Lycans debuted with just over $7k per theater. This one has a massive ad push and no real competition in the demo. They aren’t screening the film for reviews, but we can safely assume that fans of the series (all 800,000 of them) are aware the film is out in theaters this weekend.

To catch up to the gold standard of Underworld films, Underworld: Evolution, this one will need to earn $62.5m at the domestic box office. Interestingly, the last iteration of the Underworld series was the first to also earn a 1:1 ratio internationally, but that effect was likely due to the film under-performing domestically, and not some new found international fandom.

Prediction: $24.9 million

Which brings us to Red Tails. This will face the battle all non-franchise films face – lack of awareness. Flyboys is a decent comparison, though this is a better film (not good, but better). You could also cite Glory Road for a January release aimed at the male dollar. Whatever you look at, it seems clear that $6200 per theater is about the most they can hope for.
Prediction: $16.43 million
Getting a big expansion this weekend. How would you feel about $5k per theater? Because that’s the number I like.
Prediction: $13.15 million
Contraband will be the biggest dipper of the weekend – it earned that right through an over-reliance on plot devices involving Kate Beckinsale.
Prediction: $12.9 million
Ten million more free dollars for our pals at Disney. Get some!
Prediction: $10.65 million
This is the one I’m hoping to see this evening, but Seattle snowpacolypse has me questioning whether I’ll get to it. Still, the buzz seems strong enough to guarantee something near $4k per theater.
Prediction: $7.98 million
$25m more and it catches MI:2. Let’s fire up the fifth one already.
Prediction: $6.81 million
Dips in the third weekend of January tend to be reasonable, and not of the 50% plus variety. Here’s a film that will certainly test that theory.
Prediction: $6.62 million
I don’t expect it to get much word of mouth, but it’s not the slightest bit front-loaded either. The end result is about a 15 percent dip.
Prediction: $4.6 million
It will likely come down to an awards or international push here. $100m domestically now feels out of reach. Perhaps War Horse 2: Joey Settles Down (in 3-D) will get there.
Prediction: $4.47 million

How say you? Three new releases and a major expansion to predict, get in the mix!

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