Box-Office Oracle: ‘Mission: Impossible’ Hopes to Exorcise ‘The Devil Inside’ for Third Weekend at #1

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The future is very cloudy. Three films have a legitimate shot at the title this weekend, plus the January box office doldrums make for a scrunched up crop of movies. Regardless, we owe it to ourselves to bust out the ol’ dartboard and break things down.
Laremy predicted the #1 movie correctly 4 Weeks In A Row

Mission: Impossible – Ghost Protocol

I’m calling for a threepeat, and Mission: Impossible – Ghost Protocol would only be the third movie released in 2011 to accomplish that feat (Breaking Dawn, The Help).

There was some confusion in the comments last week about my bullish domestic cume call on this version of MI, and the explanation is a rather simple one. The Mojo numbers hadn’t been updated as of press time, making my overall cume take premature and inaccurate. There’s the downside of researching the numbers earlier.

Mission: Impossible – Ghost Protocol has now passed MI:3 (not adjusted for inflation) and seems poised to sail past the original as well. It’s also performing well internationally, in line with the expected 1 to 1.85 ratio, tilted toward the overseas dollar. As such, $300m internationally is likely, and half a billion overall is predictive given the weak January competition.

Prediction: $17.67 million

Speaking of, is this Hostel? Because that’s what it will need to be to rip the crown away from Mission: Impossible – Ghost Protocol. I think it’s about 80 percent as buzzy/marketable, so I’m seeing $7500 per theater (short of Hostel‘s $8900).
Prediction: $15 million
It didn’t gain as much ground as the broad family films last weekend, but it also won’t be as vulnerable to wild swings. Targeting adults has a bit of an upside on that front.
Prediction: $11.85 million
It’s likely facing the biggest dip of the weekend. At some point not being a good movie catches up to you.
Prediction: $11.27 million
It will have a nice holdover number, but it should have opened prior to Christmas. I’d say the timing cost them $30m or so.
Prediction: $10.6 million
Lagging well behind the first two domestically. People are over it.
Prediction: $8.59 million
This will be the first weekend it bleeds a bit. Perhaps the sequel will work domestically now that audiences are acclimated to the marketing.
Prediction: $8.12 million
If it truly only cost $50m to make then they probably can get it all back on residuals.
Prediction: $7.67 million
Theater counts weren’t released as I formulated this, so I penciled in $6k per, 1200 theaters total. Your prediction should be better unless I catch a break.
Prediction: $7.2 million
Somehow this film already has a $40m warchest even though it’s never even hit 1,000 theaters. Remarkable.
Prediction: $3.88 million

How say you? Do you have a better bead on Tinker Tailor or The Devil Inside? Want to throw out a different top dog? Here’s your chance, predictions away!

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