2012 Oscar Predictions: Filling the Fifth Slot for Best Director

Yesterday, the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences mailed out 5,783 nomination ballots for the 84th Academy Awards to its voting members. Those ballots must be returned to PricewaterhouseCoopers by 5 p.m. PT on January 13 with nominations to be announced on Tuesday, January 24, 2012, at 5:30 a.m. PST. In short… there is still a ton of time between now and then for the race to change.

Even though ballots must be turned in before the Golden Globes and Screen Actors Guild Awards will be handed out, the winners from the SAG Awards especially will help in trying to determine some categories in the race. The Critics Choice Awards on January 12th may also give us a little bit of a clue as to which way the tide is turning in other races, though it’s always hard to shake out just how much critical opinion matters in these races. A lot? A little? None at all?

As a matter of fact, when it comes to Best Director the Critics Choice Awards have matched the Oscar winner 13 out of the 16 years they’ve been handed out. The three times they did not match began in 2002 when Steven Spielberg won for Catch Me If You Can (he wasn’t even nominated for an Oscar), again in 2004 when the BFCA awarded Martin Scorsese for The Aviator while Clint Eastwood won for Million Dollar Baby, and then, obviously, last year when the BFCA awarded David Fincher for The Social Network only to watch Tom Hooper win the Oscar for The King’s Speech.

So, with an 81% success rate at predicting the Oscar winner, will we know who will be taking home Best Director on the night of January 12? Let’s take a look at just who exactly the BFCA nominated for the Critics Choice Awards:

Stephen Daldry (Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close)
Michel Hazanavicius (The Artist)
Alexander Payne (The Descendants)
Nicolas Winding Refn (Drive)
Martin Scorsese (Hugo)
Steven Spielberg (War Horse)

Looking over that list I think we can all agree right now that Michel Hazanavicius, Alexander Payne and Martin Scorsese are going to be nominated. All three were nominated by both the BFCA and HFPA. I also think we can count on Spielberg being nominated for War Horse, which, for me, leaves one spot open. If I was to attempt to select that one spot from the choices given to me by the BFCA and HFPA I would be choosing between Stephen Daldry (Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close), Nicolas Winding Refn (Drive), Woody Allen (Midnight in Paris) and George Clooney (The Ides of March).

So who do you pick? Will it be one of those four or an alternate candidate?

Around January 9th I expect we’ll be hearing the nominees for the Directors Guild Awards, which should clear things up a little bit and perhaps help us figure out that final spot. Last year it went to David O. Russell for The Fighter when it just as easily could have gone to Christopher Nolan (Inception) or Danny Boyle (127 Hours).

After a lot of thought, I finally decided I would fill that final slot with Woody Allen, though it wasn’t an easy decision and no, Stephen Daldry wasn’t my second choice. In fact, I think one name not mentioned yet that stands a chance is Tate Taylor for The Help. The biggest problem with that choice is I see Taylor being a larger champion among other members of the Academy and not necessarily the Directors branch. On top of that, sometimes you just have to take a risk.

However, when you visit my rankings page for Best Director you’ll see I have kept Taylor up there in sixth position, just ahead of Daldry and ahead of another name that just might make the DGA’s list of nominees and get me to move his name even higher: Terrence Malick (The Tree of Life).

The thing with Malick is that he has only been nominated by the DGA once and by the Academy once and for the same film (The Thin Red Line). Should I really expect what is essentially a personal and experimental film to make that big a splash on the awards scene were “safe” is the agreed upon word of the day each and every day?

People keep wondering why Stephen Daldry‘s Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close remains in my Best Picture predictions despite the negative critical reaction so far. Well, beyond the fact not all critics have weighed in (though group think has obviously started to set in), sentimentality wins over Academy members and like it or not, Extremely Loud is incredibly sentimental and word around the Internet is that it is playing very well in Academy screenings and it’s already off to a great start in limited release. So, no, it has nothing to do with the fact I love the film, but everything to do with the fact I think it’s a film that will appeal to Academy members.

Where I am beginning to have a hang up with my Extremely Loud prediction, though, is when it comes to categories such as Director and Film Editing (which I will be covering tomorrow). I’m not sure it’s going to make my predictions in either category, which makes it very hard to be nominated for Best Picture and pretty much impossible to win. Of course, a Daldry film has surprised us before (The Reader) and he’s yet to direct a feature film and not be nominated for Best Director. It’s a hard bit of history to bet against, but right now, for Director, I am.

Directly below are my current predictions for Best Director with Hazanavicius my front-runner to win. You can browse my complete rankings for the category right here as I have trimmed the field to 15 contenders.