Before I stepped away for a Christmas break I had to do a little cleaning up when it came to my Oscar predictions as several categories needed some maintenance. As a result I’ve added a new contender to Best Picture, two new contenders to Best Supporting Actress, a new contender to Best Cinematography and I also trimmed the fat here and there as the true contenders for each category are becoming clearer and clearer.
Now this update includes changes to four categories so I will try and make each one rather quick as you can always click over to my official Oscar predictions section and get further detail and rankings. That said, let’s dig in.
After my last batch of Best Picture updates (read that Bridesmaids in my top 20 predictions. My reply went like this:
My theory on both of those is that with Harry Potter the biggest issue is that it is only half of a film. Had they released it as one three-hour film (maybe even a little longer) it would have been a shoo-in for Best Picture, especially this year. With Bridesmaids I think the love is more for the actors than the film as a whole as I see the film being a little weak, largely gaining love due to its comedy rather than its story.
I stick by both of those sentiments, which is mainly why I haven’t included Bridesmaids in my Best Picture predictions. However, considering Harry Potter does seem to have a certain number of ardent supporters and most Oscar prognosticators have given it some credit and continue to list it as a possibility (and even though I see this more as a hit-baiting technique) I have added Deathly Hallows to the predictions.
I still, though, hold to what I said back in July along with the quote above, “No, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows won’t be nominated for Best Picture.” I reserve the right to be wrong, but by adding it to my predictions I am bending as much as I am willing until the nominations say otherwise.
As for the films I do believe will be nominated, those are listed directly below with a little movement since the last time.
- The Descendants (dir. Alexander Payne)
- The Artist (dir. Michel Hazanavicius)
- The Help (dir. Tate Taylor)
- War Horse (dir. Steven Spielberg)
- Moneyball (dir. Bennett Miller)
- Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close (dir. Stephen Daldry)
- Hugo (dir. Martin Scorsese)
- Midnight in Paris (dir. Woody Allen)
You can browse my complete Best Picture predictions right here.
Since the last time I updated my Best Supporting Actress predictions, Jessica Chastain (The Help) was nominated by the Screen Actors Guild, the Critics Choice Awards and the Golden Globes, Melissa McCarthy (Bridesmaids) was snubbed by the Golden Globes but nominated by the Broadcast Film Critics Association and the Screen Actors Guild and Vanessa Redgrave (Coriolanus) was snubbed on all accounts. Changes needed to be made.
Before today, I didn’t even have McCarthy among my list of contenders, and while I’m not ready to award a comedic performance a place among the nominees just yet, McCarthy debuts on my list in the #6 slot, which already places her ahead of Redgrave whom I dropped to #7.
Taking Redgrave’s place among the nominees is Chastain as it appears her role in The Help is the one she’s most likely to be recognized for as opposed to Take Shelter, but competing against herself in these cases isn’t going to help her much as others also recognize her work in The Tree of Life. Dreamworks and her reps are going to have to work hard to get the Academy focused on one role, but with her nomination from the Screen Actors Guild it leads me to believe the actors have already started making up their minds.
Below are my current predictions for nominations in the category to this point and I can’t quite decide, if McCarthy gets in, who gets bounced? Woodley? Chastain? Bejo?
- Octavia Spencer (The Help)
- Janet McTeer (Albert Nobbs)
- Shailene Woodley (The Descendants)
- Jessica Chastain (The Help)
- Berenice Bejo (The Artist)
You can browse my complete Best Supporting Actress predictions right here.
