Friday Box-Office: Will ‘The Muppets’ Edge Out ‘Twilight: Breaking Dawn’ for the Three-Day Win?

The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn – Part 1 has now made over $196 million domestically after adding $16.9 million to its total on Friday. It is expected to fall short of the Thanksgiving five-day total taken in by the franchise’s 2009 installment, New Moon, which made $66.3 million in the same time frame. As for the three-day total, I’m thinking $40 million is where it will likely top out, which would be a 71% drop from its $138.1 million opening last week. It’s a large drop, but it’s to be expected. Question is, will it mean a second place finish?

In second on Friday was the first of the holiday weekend’s newcomers, The Muppets, with $12.2 million which may end up being enough to kick start a weekend #1 slot. The film has now made a little over $24 million in its first three days and on Friday nearly doubled its Thanksgiving Day opening. Will it be able to accumulate enough over Saturday and Sunday to topple Breaking Dawn? Can it manage a lofty $28 million or more on Saturday and Sunday?

While The Muppets battle for first with Twilight everything else is a battle for third beginning with Happy Feet Two, which added $5.1 million to its meager $35 million cume since opening last weekend. It might be looking at something like $13-14 million for the three-day, which would be a drop of only 38% or so, but we’re still talking about a flop as reports are now saying people are already being laid off due to the film’s failure.

In fourth and fifth is a bit of an unexpected battle as Arthur Christmas and Martin Scorsese’s Hugo took home $4.55 million and $4.53 million respectively as the two films have been in a virtual dead heat since Arthur edged out Hugo on Thanksgiving Day but caught up on Thursday. The kicker here, however, is that Arthur Christmas is in 2,099 more theaters than Hugo and both are in 3D.

Hugo will likely fall behind as the weekend moves on, in large part due to the theater count disadvantage, with $11-12 million results for both are expected. Should Hugo manage $11 million it would be looking at a $8,613 per theater average. The unfortunate news is that the film was made for something like $130+ million and in its first five days it will only be around $15 million total.

As far as other new releases are concerned, My Week with Marilyn opened in 244 theaters and brought in $607,000 and The Artist opened in four theaters and brought home $75,000. There is no news yet on how A Dangerous Method or Rampart performed in their limited runs.

I have included Friday’s top ten directly below and will be back on Sunday morning with a complete weekend wrap-up. You tell me, do you see The Muppets taking out Breaking Dawn or will the Twilight franchise prevail?

1. The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn – Part 1 – $16.9 million
2. The Muppets – $12.2 million
3. Happy Feet Two – $5.1 million
4. Arthur ChristmasSony – $4.5 million
5. Hugo – $4.5 million
6. Jack and Jill – $3.8 million
7. Immortals – $3.5 million
8. Puss in Boots – $2.9 million
9. J. Edgar – $1.9 million
10. A Very Harold & Kumar 3D Christmas – $630,000