Box-Office Oracle: It’s ‘Twilight’ Versus ‘The Muppets’ This Thanksgiving Three-Day

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Happy Thanksgiving! It’s a great time to be a child, five of the top six films are aimed squarely at younglings (even if not all of them connect). Let’s break this thing down before my gravy gets cold!
Laremy predicted the #1 movie correctly 1 Week In A Row

The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn – Part 1

I tried every which way to have The Muppets win the weekend but it wasn’t to be. The problem is 600 fewer theaters and a demo that might be slightly too old meeting massive competition for the family dollar.

As for The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn – Part 1, it’s made $311 million worldwide on a production budget of $110 million, the majority of which went to the three leads. It’s well positioned to have another lucrative run for Summit Entertainment, the franchise has crossed the $2 billion mark worldwide. That’s good money if you can get it.

The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn – Part 1 is largely for the fans, it won’t be converting any previous detractors. Which means fans are seeing it two or three times, it’s become mother-daughter day out. Still, if it lost the weekend to my #2 film, I’d give a little cheer …

Prediction: $46.05 million

Loved this one, and the A CinemaScore grade means the general public is with me. But what about the kiddies, will they relate to this new Muppet film as their parents did decades ago? That’s the great mystery of the weekend. It looks like Muppets is going to come up just short. Speaking of shorts, the Pixar one before this feature film is quite solid.
Prediction: $44.07 million
With an A- CinemaScore, this one has a very strong first act, even stronger than The Muppets. It just doesn’t follow through as well, which will lead to a smaller percentage recommending and evangelizing upon its behalf. My guess is Sony didn’t have to spend much on production, so the PG rating and international reach should turn this into a winner.
Prediction: $16.88 million
It’s earned $28m so far. That’s not enough, Warner Bros. should have put a Dark Knight Rises trailer in front of it.
Prediction: $15.92 million
5. Hugo
I’d love to tell you I knew Paramount’s plan here, but with a production budget rumored at $130m+ and only 1,277 theaters things look very bleak for the Scorsese film. Were there not enough 3-D theaters to go around? Are they trying a slow roll-out? I’m dubious, especially give the market competition. PG is a war zone right now.
Prediction: $7.66 million
It’s not a win for Paramount / Dreamworks, but they might have made just enough to justify a sequel. Maybe this will just be a loss leader for a second and third effort, where the marketing dollars can achieve market saturation.
Prediction: $7.6 million
Still has the best visuals on the board. $121m on a $75m production budget so far, but I think the international reach will be strong.
Prediction: $6.35 million
Just saw an ad that advertised this as the “#1 comedy in America!” Technically true, though at least five of the films that will finish above it are funnier. This one is getting coal for Christmas.
Prediction: $6.2 million
A glossy comedy that didn’t really resonate. It will soon be forgotten completely.
Prediction: $4.18 million
At least the budget was only $35m. Eastwood saved money by only using three colors in his film. (Now who will be the first to try and throw the RGB color model in my face?)
Prediction: $3.85 million

So many predictions, so little time. Here’s your chance to show me up on Muppets, Hugo, and Arthur Christmas. If you’re wondering, I’ve got The Descendants and My Week with Marilyn finishing #11 and #12, respectively, both with around $2m. If you see higher, throw that out there too. Now if you’ll excuse me, there’s some corn bread calling my name.

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