Box-Office Oracle: ‘Breaking Dawn’ Predicted to Break $150 Million?

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The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn – Part 1 may be the most unwieldy title even conceived by marketers. It’s also poised to crush this weekend. Let’s break it down!
Laremy predicted the #1 movie correctly 0 Weeks In A Row

The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn – Part 1

The winter Twilight releases are heavily frontloaded. For instance, Eclipse opened a full $78m lighter than New Moon … and yet still made slightly more domestically. New Moon dropped 70 and 64 percent in the second and third weekend, which is the precise sort of trouble Breaking Dawn: Part One is looking at for next weekend.

However, for this weekend we’re looking at per theater averages around $37k per theater, a very nice number. I think it’s helped by forgoing the 3-D aspect, they lose 10 to 15 percent off the ticket price but are far more likely to attain repeat viewings and parental inclusion. What about a “not in 3-D!” marketing slogan? This could work.

Prediction: $150.25 million

Five years ago the first one opened at $41m. It had an absolutely lovely holdover too. For this one we’re looking at $12k per theater as families with youngsters flock to avoid the cold.
Prediction: $43.27 million
I’ve got to drop it 45 percent. The “B” CinemaScore tells me that folks are appreciating the visuals but disregarding the story.
Prediction: $17.71 million
Should hold up well unless Happy Feet Two really pillages.
Prediction: $17.29 million
I wanted to dip it 60 percent … but the precedent doesn’t indicate that.
Prediction: $13 million
Was Ratner in the news at all this week? Does anyone miss him?
Prediction: $6.38 million
Adult audiences won’t have many more options … but they won’t be choosing this one either.
Prediction: $5.38 million
It hasn’t even cleared $30m on a $19m production budget. Is the franchise in trouble?
Prediction: $3.13 million
I’m sure there are people out there who dig In Time. I just haven’t met any of them.
Prediction: $1.71 million
It won’t make near as much as the original, especially once you factor in that massive inflation penalty.
Prediction: $1.29 million

How say you? There’s a lot of room on Breaking Dawn, higher or lower, and Happy Feet Two holds some randomness as well. Predictions away!

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