Box-Office Predictions: 'Apollo 18' Orbits the #1 Spot, Toppling 'The Help' and 'Shark Night 3D'

Yikes. Right now I have the top twelve earning around $60m for the three-day weekend, a low mark we haven’t seen since September of 2008. That was the weekend Bangkok Dangerous bested three-time winner Tropic Thunder. I wrote “everything made nothing” as I put a bow on the wrap-up to mail it in.

The good news is that we’ll probably have a film break double digits. The bad news? All the rest of it. Let’s break it down!

Laremy predicted the #1 movie correctly 5 Weeks In A Row

Apollo 18

So wait, did this happen? Is it a true story, like Dude Where’s My Car?

Veracity issues aside, the financial prospects look truly grim. They didn’t screen the film for critics, and if you add up these numbers they won’t be screening the film for audiences either. I’ve got a number around $4k per theater. The East Coast is still recovering, it’s a holiday weekend, school starts soon (or has started), football is about to appear on the tele, and studios have decided to release a swarm of angry bees into each and every theater that people dare occupy. Okay, not that last one. But it’s bleak out there, of this there is no doubt.

Perhaps something will break out, and the most likely candidate is the sci-fi/horror hybrid. Anything above two million ticket buyers will have Weinstein / Dimension dancing in the streets. Anyone seen a budget? I’ve seen $5 million. Hopefully they received some charitable grants to get this puppy off the ground.

Prediction: $11.26 million

2. The Help

NYC didn’t get to throw its heft behind the holdover champ, though much of the rest of the country did. Still, a 25 percent dip feels right. Sometimes in the Oracle game you’ve got to go with your gut.

Prediction: $10.9 million

3. Shark Night 3D

I have no idea why you make this PG-13. I have no idea why you don’t screen this for reviews, as even mean reviews would draw some interest. In summation: Relativity, you are acting really weird in how you’re rolling out Shark Night 3D.

Prediction: $7 million

4. The Debt

Lions for Lambs feels like the closest comp, though this one seems to have more of a thriller / action vibe.

Prediction: $4.91 million

5. Rise of the Planet of the Apes

$307m on a $93m production budget. Everyone is going home happy on this deal.

Prediction: $4.33 million

6. Colombiana

I was a witness to this. Just needed to adios the weird love angle. Writers continue to insist that our killer-assassins be sympathetic, though I’m not sure the audience is with them there.

Prediction: $4.26 million

7. Don’t be Afraid of the Dark

At least the budget was under $30m.

Prediction: $3.83 million

8. Our Idiot Brother

A $5m budget here! And it had Paul Rudd, Elizabeth Banks and Zooey Deschanel in the mix. Well done.

Prediction: $3.78 million

9. Spy Kids 4: All the Time in the World

Can we close the book on this franchise? Wait, don’t answer that. Give me a second while I close the book on this franchise.

Prediction: $3.36 million

10. The Smurfs

Neil Patrick Harris is a national treasure. I don’t think there’s another takeaway from a Smurf film that’s nearing a 4x multiplier… Except that news of A Smurf’s Christmas Carol

Prediction: $3.06 million

How say you? Care to throw darts at this maelstrom? Apollo 18 and The Help should battle it out for first, but nothing is too outlandish at this point. Predictions away!

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